The Consumer Price Index of 11% in March, with core inflation at 9.4%,
paves the way for April to become the month in which the record is in single digits.
In the Central Bank's Market Expectations survey, the consulting firms, which had marked 12.5% for March, predicted 10.8% in April and 9% in May.
But in light of the latest INDEC report, some analysts are beginning to review their projections and
see it possible that it will reach single digits in April.
With the dollar as an anchor, inflation has been falling month by month since January. But the strong increases in public services in April threaten to break that trend. Increases in gas
range between 250% and 500% throughout the country
. In the case of electricity, the increases vary between 120% and 300%.
However, the slowdown in food may offset the rise in tariffs.
In March, the food item rose 10.5%, below the 11.9% in February. And this downward trend would deepen in April.
From the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, the survey for the first week of April showed that the retail price index grew by 10.2% monthly. "Based on these data, we project that April will close with
a monthly increase of 9.5%
; even given the impact of the increase in rates. This is because the impact of updating regulated prices is offset by a strong slowdown in the unregulated ones, which already traveled at a single-digit monthly rate in March and which in April could rise around 6%-7%," said Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Foundation.
The data from the survey of retail prices by the consulting firm C&T for the GBA region show "a strong impact of the adjustments in gas and water service but an important moderation in the vast majority of the rest of the items, including food and beverages, which are key in core inflation. Therefore,
total inflation for the month could reach single digits
," they anticipate.
In the measurement by the consulting firm EcoGo, the food price survey showed an inflation of
0.4% in the first week of April, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous week.
The same trend is recorded by the consulting firm LCG, which in its food price index
registers 0.4% in the first week of April and 0.2% in the second. This is the lowest weekly index in the last 9 months.
"April began marking a new slowdown in the LCG food price survey, accumulating an inflation of 0.6% in two weeks.
In April, seasonality usually plays in its favor
, on which, in addition, the BCRA continues with a crawl of the 2% in the official exchange rate," says LCG.
"In this weekly survey, food inflation had been averaging 11-12% monthly, but collapsed to the values of June 2023 (6.2% average as of the second week of April). The percentage of products with increases was remains high (25%). However,
we have to wait to see the effects of the second rounds of the regulated increases and the increase in gas that will be felt during the month
," they warn.
For the Bahía Blanca Economic Studies Center, in the first week of April,
the food and beverage category registered a variation of 2%.
Compared to the previous week, the products that increased the most were potatoes with 18.5%, water with 10.3% and rice with 10.1%. At the same time, there were drops of 5% in oranges, 6% in coffee and 6.9% in butter.
According to the Econviews price survey, which measures a basket of food, cleaning and perfumery in supermarkets,
the month began with a weekly variation of 0.8%
. In the first week of March the increase had been 2.2%.
The economist Fernando Marull, director of the consulting firm FMyA, closed
inflation at 12.1%
for March , with Food closer to 10%.
"April would be the last month of strong rate increases, since gas increases of around 350% average for residential were finally confirmed.
This would contribute almost 2 points to general inflation
, which we project at 11% monthly. In the case particular of Food will continue below 10%," says Marull.
Fall in consumption
The curb on food is in tune with the collapse in consumption. According to CAME data, in March retail sales
fell 12.6% annually compared to the same month last year, at constant prices
, and accumulated a drop of 22.1% in the first quarter of the year. In the monthly comparison, they decreased 3.2%.
Food sales fell 15.5% annually in March
, at constant prices and accumulated a decline of 28.7% in the first three months of the year, compared to the same period in 2023. In the month-on-month comparison, they declined 2.7% .