As of: March 29, 2024, 4:30 p.m
By: Simon Mones
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Electric cars are still more expensive than combustion engines. But according to the Research Center Jülich, that will soon change. The difference is particularly clear when it comes to consumption costs.
The triumph of the electric car actually seemed to have already begun. From 2035 onwards, only climate-neutral electric vehicles and vehicles using e-fuels will be allowed to be registered in the EU. In the last few months there has been one setback after another. In Germany, the environmental bonus was abolished and, as a result, registration numbers collapsed. At the same time, electric cars have become significantly more expensive compared to combustion engines. So it's no wonder that retailers are pessimistic about sales figures for 2024.
Manufacturing costs for electric car batteries are falling
Ultimately, the price is a decisive factor in which drive customers choose. And so far the battery has ensured that electric cars have a huge cost disadvantage. According to an analysis by the Research Center Jülich, the production of one kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery cell (LIB) in the USA currently costs 94.50 US dollars (87.57 euros) and 64.5 kilograms of CO2 emissions.
Since 2010, the cost of producing a battery has fallen dramatically. © Westend61/Imago
The price is expected to fall further in the coming years. A price reduction for lithium-ion batteries to 83 euros per kilowatt hour is expected for 2025. For comparison, in 2010 it was still 600 euros, reports
Deutsche Wirtschaftsnachrichten
. And that also affects the vehicle costs.
Researchers are certain: “The combustion engine will be the most expensive variant in all cases examined
“Our analyzes show that in the next few years electromobility will become the cheaper alternative in the vast majority of cases and that this trend will continue to strengthen in the long term,” explains Detlef Stolten, director of the Jülich Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis. “The reasons are the positive technical and economic development of electromobility, as well as the simultaneous rising fuel costs for combustion engines.” According to the Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IIEK-3) at the Research Center Jülich, e-fuels only play a very minor role.
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According to calculations by the researchers at IEK-3, the maintenance effort and efficiency of electric cars mean that the battery-electric variant will have lower overall costs over its service life from the middle of this decade. However, the manufacturing costs will still be higher than those of a conventional car with a combustion engine in 2025. “Whether the battery or fuel cell is worthwhile depends on the respective application and the development of electricity and hydrogen costs. However, one thing is clear: the combustion engine will be the most expensive variant in all cases examined,” explains Thomas Grube, head of the traffic technology and future mobility team. Consumption costs with e-fuels will increase by 60 to 90 percent by 2045. For vehicles with batteries or fuel cells, they remain almost identical.
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The researchers predict that the battery will have a dominant market position by the end of the decade. Probably also because there will be numerous affordable electric cars coming onto the market in the coming years that will cost less than 25,000 euros. The Renault 5, for example, already has over 50,000 pre-orders. Volkswagen even wants to produce an electric car with the ID.1 for less than 20,000 euros in 2027.