Last weekend, in an interview with Ben Shapiro, the popular American presenter with an ultra-conservative ideology,
Javier Milei
upped the ante. "Today we would win an election in the first round," the President challenged and left the doubt in the air. True or false?
To try to clarify the question,
CB Consultora Opinión Pública
decided to carry out a
new national survey
revolving around this question. The firm led by analyst
Cristian Buttié
conducted a survey of
1,219 cases throughout the country
and presented the results with +/- 2.7 margin of error.
And although a conclusive result is not reached, it can be said that Milei was much closer to being right than to exaggerating. Basically because she would keep almost half of the votes that her then rival and now ally Patricia Bullrich obtained.
"If last year's first round elections were repeated today with the same candidates, who would you vote for?"
CB
asked
and put
Milei
(La Libertad Avanza),
Sergio Massa
(Unión por la Patria),
Patricia Bullrich
(Together for Change),
Juan Schiaretti
(We Do for Our Country) and
Myriam Bregman
(Frente de Izquierda)
, plus the variants
"don't know"
and
"blank/null"
.
How the presidential election would go today / First round
Based on a national survey of 1,219 cases
Source:
CB Consulting Public Opinion
Infographic:
Clarín
The first result leaves the
libertarian
at the top with
36.4%
,
Massa
second with
29.1%
and
Bullrich
third with
12.3%
. The rule to avoid a runoff, remember, is to exceed 45 or reach 40 and have the immediate pursuer at 10 or more. Here
Milei is close.
And when the undecided (7.2%) and the white/null (5.1%) are projected, the President exceeds 40 (41.5%) and scores 8.4 points over Massa (33.1%). . Although he does not meet the conditions to win in the first round, he remains within the margin of error.
Yellow votes that turned purple
The interesting thing about this survey, which of course does not replicate a national election but is a parameter, is when
its figures are compared with the real result
of that first round on Sunday, October 22, 2023.
That day,
Massa
led with
36.78%
,
Milei
came second with
29.99
% and
Bullrich
third with
23.81%
. Farther away,
Schiaretti
(
6.73%
) and Bregman (
2.69%
) completed
.
Roughly speaking, now the President keeps the yellow votes that Bullrich loses (the minister drops 9.81% and Milei grows 11.51%) and Massa's fall in the survey (3.81%) is shared between Schiaretti ( up 1.07%) and Bregman (up 0.9%). Even part of the loss of the Unión por la Patria candidate (a little more than a point and a half) would be going to his winner.
More advantage in a runoff
CB
also measured how a
runoff
between Milei and Massa would go today. And although the
President widens the advantage a little
, the statistical result does not differ too much from the true one.
How do you explain that? Because in the second round the Milei yes or Milei no crack already operated, and Bullrich's votes went towards the libertarian.
How the presidential election would go today / Runoff
Based on a national survey of 1,219 cases
Source:
CB Consulting Public Opinion
Infographic:
Clarín
On November 19 of last year, the
La Libertad Avanza
candidate finished with
55.65
% against
44.35%
for his rival from
Unión por la Patria
.
When the survey makes the projection of undecided more white/null,
Milei rises to 57.8% and Massa falls to 42.2%
. Since it is a survey with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%, it is almost the same thing.