The opposition is struggling and the current Hindu Prime Minister Narendra Modi is almost guaranteed to win. India began voting this Friday, as part of the general elections. A long queue formed in front of a polling station when it opened in Haridwar, an important Hindu pilgrimage site on the banks of the Ganges and one of the first cities to vote in these elections.
“I am happy with the direction the country is heading,” says Ganga Singh, 27, a rickshaw driver in Haridwar. “I will vote thinking not of my personal well-being but of the prosperity of the country. » On the other hand, Gabbar Thakur, 50, a tourist photographer, who came early to vote says he is “angry with the government”, deploring that “the so-called development has not reached where (he lives)”.
“Every vote counts”
From the start of the vote, Narendra Modi urged voters in the first phase of the poll, which has seven, to “exercise their right to vote in record numbers”, particularly young people and those voting for the first time. “Every vote counts and every voice is important,” he added on the social network X (formerly Twitter).
The Congress, the main opposition party in India, reminded voters, on the same platform, that their "vote can end inflation, unemployment, hatred and injustice", and to underline : “Make sure to vote”, “Don’t forget to vote”. In total, 968 million Indians are expected to elect the 543 members of the lower house, more than the total population of the United States, the European Union and Russia combined.
The elections run until June 1, with more than a million polling stations across the country. Ballots across the country will be counted on June 4. Results are usually announced the same day.
A still popular Prime Minister
Narendra Modi, aged 73, is still very popular after two terms, during which India increased its diplomatic influence and economic weight. A 2023 Pew survey indicated that Narendra Modi was viewed favorably by almost 80% of Indians. He has already given the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) two landslide victories in 2014 and 2019 by playing on the religious fiber of the Hindu electorate.
This year, he inaugurated a large temple in the city of Ayodhya dedicated to the Hindu deity Ram, built on the site of a centuries-old mosque destroyed by Hindu fanatics. This event, eagerly awaited by its activists, benefited from extensive media coverage and public festivities throughout India. Political analysts have already given him the victory against a coalition of opposition parties which has not yet named its candidate for the post of Prime Minister.
His prospects have been boosted by several criminal investigations against his opponents. Congress' bank accounts have been frozen since February by the Indian tax authorities, following a dispute over tax returns dating back five years. “We have no money to campaign, we cannot support our candidates,” warned its leader Rahul Gandhi in March. “Our ability to fight the electoral battle has been damaged. »
Rahul Gandhi, 53, whose father, grandmother and great-grandfather all served as prime minister, was briefly removed from Parliament last year after being convicted of defamation. Presented by Narendra Modi as disconnected from Indian reality, Rahul Gandhi sought to get closer to the population by organizing two marches across the country. But after two successive defeats against Narendra Modi, there is no sign that his efforts to undermine the Prime Minister's popularity are crowned with success.
He accuses the government of a certain democratic backsliding and criticizes its appeals to India's majority faith, to the detriment of significant minorities, including 210 million Muslim Indians, worried about their future. Narendra Modi's mandates were marked by "a pattern of repression aimed at undermining democracy and civic space", denounced the rights association CIVICUS in a report on Wednesday.
An opposition bloc facing the BJP
The Congress, which ruled the country almost continuously for decades after India's independence, is a shadow of its former self and governs in only three of the country's 28 states. Its leaders formed a coalition with more than twenty regional parties to confront the BJP and its well-oiled and generously financed electoral machinery. But the bloc is beset by disputes over seat-sharing deals and suffered the defection of one of its leaders to the government.
The coalition accuses the government of Narendra Modi of using justice to neutralize certain opposition leaders such as Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, currently in detention. Under the mandates of Narendra Modi, India became the fifth largest economy in the world ahead of the United Kingdom, the former colonial power.
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And Western countries are rushing to court this potential ally to fight against the growing assertiveness of China, a great rival in the region, despite warnings from rights defenders about the decline in press freedom. Since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, India has fallen 21 places in the world press freedom rankings established by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), ranking 161st out of 180 countries.