Israel is said to have been surprised by Iran's major attack. According to US government sources, the Israelis “severely miscalculated.”
New York - With Iran's airstrike on Israel late Saturday evening (April 13), relations between the two countries have reached a low point. For the first time in history, the mullahs' regime had attacked Israel directly - after decades in which the hostility had been carried out primarily verbally or through proxies. Explosions were then reported from Iran on Friday morning (April 19). The counterattack from Israel had been expected for days.
But this escalation in the Middle East was avoidable. According to media reports, the Israelis were surprised by Iran's reaction. Accordingly, Tel Aviv did not expect that Tehran would retaliate so strongly after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria - and "severely miscalculated" the action in Damascus.
Israel is said to have completely misjudged the consequences of the alleged attack on the Iranian embassy
This is what the
New York Times
writes , citing US government circles and a high-ranking Israeli official. Accordingly, the Israelis admitted that they had completely misjudged the consequences of the attack. And even after it became clear that Iran would retaliate, Israel and the US still expected that the scale of the response would be quite limited. They probably had to revise this assessment several times in the days before the Iranian attack.
According to the report, which is said to be based on discussions with senior government officials from the United States, Israel, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel had planned the airstrike on the Iranian embassy two months in advance. Around a week before the attack, the Israeli War Cabinet approved the operation on March 22nd. The target was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the Iranian Qods Force for Syria and Lebanon. Zahedi was
killed, as were six other Iranian officers, in the attack, for which Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, according to
the New York Times .
According to the report, Israel only informed the USA shortly before the attack on the Iranian embassy
Explosive: As the newspaper writes, Israel apparently informed the USA only a few moments before the attack. The Americans are angry with their ally. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III complained directly to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in an April 3 call, according to U.S. officials. Austin saw this and the short warning time as jeopardizing the security of US forces in the region.
Meanwhile, the Israelis had only expected smaller retaliatory strikes from proxies or a limited attack from Iran. A few days before the Iranian attack, they realized that Iran had something much bigger in mind, and the Israelis increased their estimate to 60 to 70 surface-to-surface missiles. Ultimately, however, Iran sent more than 500 drones, rockets and cruise missiles on the journey.
This was preceded by hectic diplomatic activity and an “unusually open and broad diplomatic campaign” by Iran, as the newspaper writes. Through Oman's mediation, Iran said it had to strike back, but would keep its attack under control and was not seeking a regional war. Experts believe that the mullahs' regime has no interest in being drawn into a major war. A war with Israel could have serious consequences for the government.
According to the report, some Israeli politicians wanted to strike back immediately after the Iranian attack
As the newspaper writes, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke in advance with high-ranking Israeli cabinet members and not only assured them of US help, but also asked them not to launch a hasty counterattack. According to
the New York Times,
this
almost happened. After the Iranian missile launches became known, leading Israeli politicians spoke out in favor of an immediate retaliatory strike. However, due to the limited damage - Israel and its allies were able to intercept around 99 percent of the missiles - the war cabinet postponed the decision.
How and when Israel will react remains unclear. According to US broadcaster ABC, the US government does not expect a counterattack on Iran before the end of the month. It is unlikely that Israel will carry out an attack on Iran before Passover, the broadcaster quoted an unnamed senior US official as saying. However, that could change at any time. Passover begins on Monday (April 22) and ends after dark on April 30.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard and other leaders are on high alert, the government official said, according to the report. Some stayed in safe places or underground shelters. At the same time, the broadcaster reported, citing three Israeli government officials, that Israel had been preparing for retaliatory strikes against Iran for at least two nights this week, but then called them off.
Concerns about the spread of the conflict between Iran and Israel
ABC
reported that the Israeli war cabinet had been presented with different options for a counterstrike. These include attacks on Iran's allies in the region, but not on Iranian soil, or possible cyber attacks. The USA and the EU have called on Israel and Iran to refrain from further attacks on each other.
There is great concern that the conflict could spread further if Israel counterattacks harshly. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned again on Wednesday of a “devastating” response from his country if Israel carried out even the slightest “aggression” against Iran.
According to the Iranian Foreign Minister, the country has assured the USA that it does not want to further aggravate the situation. Tehran tried to “make it clear to Washington that we are not looking to escalate tensions in the region,” the
AFP
agency quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian as saying. The only question is: How will the regime react to the Israeli counterattack?
(flon, dpa)