Geopolitical crises drive Europeans to the polls, according to the latest Eurobarometer

The concern generated by the current volatile geopolitical situation may act as a driver of voting in Europe. Up to 71% of Europeans express their intention to go to the polls in the European elections in June, according to the latest Eurobarometer before the electoral event and, also, this legislature. Although these figures usually drop on election day, voting intention is currently ten percentage points higher than in the 2019 elections and three points above what was predicted last October.

The “current international context”, in which there is a multiplication of conflicts in the world – and at the very doors of Europe, with the war in Ukraine entering its third year – makes Europeans think that voting is “even more important ” at the moment (81%), according to the European survey, carried out on more than 26,000 citizens over 15 years of age from the 27 Member States between February and March and published this Wednesday.

“We always hear that each European election is more important than the last, but this time, the elections are not only important, they are fundamental for many reasons, including the global geopolitical landscape. “Citizens understand the true dimension of these European elections,” summarizes the chief spokesperson of the European Parliament, Jaume Duch.

The increase in voting intention compared to the Eurobarometer survey of the same date in 2019 is majority in the EU: in 24 countries it has increased significantly, including Spain, while it remains “stable” in the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium and Estonia. The only significant decrease, of seven points, is in Bulgaria, something that those responsible for the survey attribute to possible electoral fatigue, since the country has experienced four parliamentary elections in the last year.

Proof of the impact of geopolitics is that, among the issues that Europeans say they want to see as a priority during the electoral campaign, the issue of defense and security is placed among the top three for the first time (31%). It is only behind the fight against poverty and social exclusion (33%) and public health (32%), and in the same proportion as the need to support the economy and create new jobs.

Defense and security also features at the top (37%) of the three main areas (along with energy independence, as well as food security and agriculture) that should focus the EU's efforts to “strengthen its position” in the world, something that the majority of Europeans see as more important (40%) or at least the same (35%) in recent years.

Join EL PAÍS to follow all the news and read without limits.

Subscribe

The question of importance that Europeans attach to security and defense shows, however, a significant geographical difference: while it is one of the absolutely priority issues in the north and east of Europe (in Denmark, Finland, Lithuania and the Netherlands, it is key for 50% or more of citizens, and above 40% in Germany, Lithuania or the Czech Republic), in the rest of the continent other priorities govern: for Spain, they are public health (45%), as well as in Greece or Ireland, as well as the fight against poverty and social exclusion (41%) and the economy (38%), also a priority issue for Portugal (55%), Italy and Hungary, among others. On the contrary, the defense and security of the EU worries only 14% of Spanish respondents, less than half of the European average and far from the concerns of the Finns, Lithuanians, Germans and Danes.

Peace, a priority

However, geopolitical concern also affects citizens' priorities in the next five years: they want the next European Parliament to focus on the values ​​of peace (47% of those surveyed) and democracy (33%), followed by the protection of human rights (24%), freedom of expression and thought (21%) and the rule of law (20%). Some priorities that, however, clash with the vote projections that have been warning for months of a reinforcement of the most extreme right, which questions the defense of many of those values.

In Spain, these values ​​are also a priority, although for Spanish voters there are also other fundamental principles: equality between women and men is just as important for Spaniards (22%, compared to 14% for the European average) as the issue of human rights and even a higher priority than the rule of law (21%).

Where there are practically no differences is in considering that “voting is important to maintain democracy” (something in which 86% of Europeans and 85% of Spaniards agree) and to guarantee a better future for the next generations. (84% European average, 85% Spanish).

“It is very clear in the survey that, for a few months, the issues that have to do with the protection of peace and, therefore, security and defense, but also with respect for democracy, rights and values have increased significantly,” says Duch. “Citizens understand what is at stake in these elections, they recognize that peace and democracy are the main values ​​to be defended in the years to come and among the priorities they want the EU to focus on to strengthen its global position are defense and security, energy and food security and agriculture.”

Regardless of what the most eurosceptic or sovereignist forces may win in the next legislature, Europeans remain quite overwhelmingly convinced that their country has benefited from its membership in the EU: this is what 71% of those consulted consider. 77% in the case of Spain. However, in both cases the number of convinced people is one percentage point lower than five years ago. Even so, Europeans say they are more optimistic (61%) than pessimistic (35%) about the future of the EU.

_