Russia is running out of soldiers, and the Kremlin is now continuing to expand – in companies and universities. Drills are already being practiced there.
Moscow – “The number of wounded and killed soldiers was 983 per day throughout February,” says a Western observer about the level of losses suffered by Vladimir Putin's troops in the Ukraine war. In total, the anonymous source of the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
put Russian losses since February 2022 at “more than 350,000 soldiers.” “The partial and covert mobilization made it possible to roughly offset these losses,” the informant adds. Moscow is now acting, as the independent Russian media
The Moscow Times
writes.
Military commissariats in the Moscow region sent a flood of letters to companies asking them to provide lists of male employees who were eligible for reserve service. The
Moscow Times
cites Russian military sources as saying that 100,000 contract soldiers have been recruited since the beginning of this year. However, that is still not enough. Russia pays a high price in blood for every step it takes on Ukrainian soil. However, the losses so far have achieved comparatively little.
Russia's material battle: Hardly any progress with significant losses
Observers from the think tank
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
see the situation critically: “The increasingly effective Russian attacks in Ukraine threaten to limit Ukraine's long-term warfare capabilities and create the conditions for Russia to make significant gains on the battlefield. “However, the land gain of the Russian aggressors is still relatively small, says Major General Christian Freuding in the Bundeswehr podcast.
Asked
: “Since the beginning of the year, the Russian armed forces have managed to take up around 300 square kilometers of space - that is roughly the size of Leipzig. So overall, quite marginal gains in terrain while accepting considerable losses and material costs.”
For the
Moscow Times
, a sign "that the mass call-ups for training could be an attempt to offset sluggish volunteer recruitment or a step toward a major offensive in Ukraine as Russia seeks to capitalize on Kiev's increasing ammunition shortage." she writes. “In my company, more than 20 percent of the 1,000 employees could be called off for military service. So many fall under the criteria,” a senior manager of an industrial company in the northwest of the Moscow region told the medium.
In the months leading up to the presidential election, the Kremlin firmly countered rumors of another wave of mobilization; After Putin's confirmation in office, there is apparently more open talk of war in Russia - the
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
headlines that the Kremlin is calling for "internal mobilization". What Western observers have been expecting since the end of last year could now follow: the next wave of mobilization after around 300,000 Russian men were recruited in the first year of the war.
Putin's hidden reserve: thousands of employees and students
Managers of three other companies and companies in the western and northern Moscow region also confirmed to The
Moscow Times
that they had received requests from conscription offices for detailed data on their employees. “We may also have to suspend operations for a while,” said a senior manager at a company more than 100 kilometers from Moscow. The men will then probably be drafted into exercises - this is an annual procedure in Russia and so nothing special in itself. But the increase in call-ups for military training signals that the authorities want to increase the level of combat training and the cohesion of the country's reserves and perfect the process itself, Israeli military expert David Sharp told the
Moscow Times
.
According to unconfirmed sources, Russia is said to have around 21 million men of military age; According to the military reform in 2008, Russia wanted to reduce its number of armed troops to one million; the general level of training and equipment is unknown. Until now, the Kremlin had increased its army with contract soldiers - for example through militias such as the Wagner mercenaries. Criminals are also said to have been recruited in exchange for a waiver of punishment. The alternative, Sharp said, would be for the Kremlin to decide that it can achieve its ambitious goals by dramatically increasing army numbers. But then it would hardly be possible to avoid speaking openly about war.
Russian Doctrine: Student Commitment to “Patriotic” Paintball
Recruitment or pre-formation is also taking place at universities, as is described in the country analysis of Russia currently published by the
Eastern Europe Research Center at the University of Bremen
- according to its authors, Russian authorities have been securing the next generation of intellectual and physical talent since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: According to this Russian authorities want to increase the number of students learning drone development to 40,000 by 2025 and to 180,000 by 2030. Universities are already recruiting students to learn how to operate drones. In St. Petersburg, for example, the Polytechnic and Electrotechnical Universities (LETI) and the State University of Telecommunications are opening separate departments and faculties for drone specialists.
In Tatarstan, according to the analysis, underage students at the Alabuga Polytechnic training center are forced to assemble Shahed drones manufactured in Russia under an Iranian license. The students would therefore not be paid for overtime. Students would also be encouraged to play “patriotic paintball,” in which they shoot at “fascists” with NATO symbols on their flags.
Putin's vision: 750,000 contract soldiers this year
At the end of the first year of the war, the Russian Ministry of Education and Science apparently recommended that universities include the “Fundamentals of Military Training” course, developed jointly with the Ministry of Defense, in their curriculum from September 2023 – open to both genders. In this, the students assemble a Kalashnikov assault rifle, prepare for the use of grenades in combat, study the statutes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and learn the basics of formation training - in other words: they are drilled.
As
Bloomberg
reports, the Kremlin planned to recruit 400,000 men from across Russia as contract soldiers last year, and the
Moscow Times
concludes from various Russian military sources that a similar number will be reached this year. In October, former President Dmitry Medvedev said 305,000 men had signed contracts with the military and 80,000 had signed up as volunteer fighters.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said last year, according to
the Moscow Times
, that the military plans to recruit nearly 750,000 contract soldiers in 2024. According to experts quoted by
ZDF
, there is no shortage of men - or women - to be drafted in either Ukraine or the Russian Federation; Nevertheless, an ever-growing difference will emerge, which is already becoming apparent. This difference can be seen in the quality and level of training of the new soldiers. Both Russia and Ukraine have lost tens of thousands of experienced soldiers killed, hundreds of thousands wounded.
According to the German political consultant Nico Lange in an interview with
ZDF
, the assumption that Russia has an infinite number of soldiers is simply a “myth”.
(Karsten Hinzmann)