Researchers are studying the connection between El Niño and climate change. A permanent weather phenomenon could worsen the crisis.
Munich – El Niño occurs in the Pacific every two to seven years and causes extreme climatic changes worldwide through air and ocean currents. This could become normal in the future. Researchers fear that the sometimes devastating effects of the weather phenomenon will not only increase, but also become an everyday reality.
“It would be a catastrophe”: Researchers fear El Niño will be permanent
Ralf Schiebel, a climate researcher from the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, told ARD on Monday (April 15)
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“We collect biological data, chemical data and physical data such as CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere and the ocean, to understand how it all connects.” Schiebel and his research team are currently on a sailing ship between Panama and the Galapagos, where they are analyzing microplankton, which provides insights into the climate system over the last 25 million years.
The researchers are concerned because three million years ago there was said to have been a permanent El Niño on Earth for thousands of years. At that time, the “CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere” and the “global mean temperature” were similar to today. Currently we are still three degrees Celsius short of reaching the same temperature, but this could be the case by the end of the century. Mojib Latif, a meteorologist on the research team, warned: “It would be a catastrophe if there were some kind of permanent El Niño. “When the system logs into a state from which it can no longer get out.”
“What is El Niño today could more or less be the future normal”
Although this theory has not yet been scientifically confirmed, other experts are also concerned. Professor Thomas Birner from the LMU Meteorological Institute already expressed his concerns in an article from 2023: “The climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate: What is El Niño today could more or less be the future normal state.”
He also warned of increased impacts: “If the world is already in the midst of a climate crisis and it is getting warmer every year, El Niño will have an additional intensifying effect in those years.” It is therefore not surprising that new escalations of the climate crisis occur particularly during El Niño phases.
El Niño is causing record heat until May - experts believe climate change is the main culprit
El Niño, which has its counterpart in La Niña, has resulted in extreme weather and temperatures in many parts of the world in recent months. In Tanzania, at least 58 people have died due to heavy rains and floods since the beginning of April. In Zimbabwe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa has declared a state of emergency due to the ongoing drought. Guatemala is struggling with numerous forest fires due to the extreme drought and in the Colombian capital Bogotá, the population's water consumption had to be restricted due to the extreme drought.
According to forecasts by UN experts, El Niño will cause record temperatures until May. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that El Niño, which has been active since June 2023, reached its peak in December. Although it is now slowly easing, its effects will be felt for several months to come. The WMO expects “above average temperatures” over “almost all land areas” on earth by May.
According to the WMO, last year was the hottest since weather records began. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that although climate change was the “main culprit,” El Niño contributed at least in part. Since the weather phenomenon typically has an even greater impact on global temperatures after its peak, 2024 could be even hotter.