After Iran's attack on Israel, experts expect a retaliatory strike. There are several options for this. The international community warns of wildfire.
Tel Aviv - Iran attacked its declared arch-enemy Israel for the first time directly from its territory on Sunday night (April 14). Trigger for the escalation: Tehran blames Israel for the attack on the Iranian representation in Syria two weeks ago. Israel is now threatening to retaliate, which experts say is only a matter of time. Above all, the question of what Tel-Aviv's military response could look like is currently preoccupying politicians and experts around the world.
Retaliation within the same framework: Conventional goals should avoid escalation
“If Israel strikes back, it will be within the same framework: targeting military facilities, not civilian areas and probably not economic targets either,” the
AFP
news agency quoted Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former agent the Israeli foreign secret service Mossad.
Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, pointed out that the Iranian attack appeared to have been designed to avoid “a large number of casualties on the Israeli side.” Hasni Abidi from the Study and Research Center for the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva also speaks of a “controlled” Iranian attack.
Oversaturation of anti-aircraft defenses: maneuvers modeled on the Ukrainian war
There is also another indication of a controlled attack: distraction and confusion. When planning its air strike, Iran is apparently based on the strategy of the Russian military in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzes in a current situation report. The main aim of the firing of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles over the weekend was to break through Israel's air and missile defenses and find a weak point. In short, the combination of Iranian drones and cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against Israel was intended to confuse and overwhelm air defenses.
The aim of this tactic is to ensure that the airspace defense shield cannot defend against all targets at the same time, but is forced to let some missiles through. “The Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel shows that Iran is learning from the Russians and the Houthis to develop increasingly dangerous and effective attack packages against Israel and the USA,” the ISW report continues.
Israel is actually technically and militarily superior to Iran. The so-called tactic of “air defense oversaturation” could therefore only be successful if it is used repeatedly and systematically. The Russian actions in Ukraine show that this strategy can work, notes Die
Zeit
.
Other scenarios are also possible: from infrastructure to cyber attacks
According to Kobi Michael, research director at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv and the Misgav Institute in Jerusalem, it is still possible that there could also be attacks on infrastructure and economic resources such as energy, oil and electricity. Other options: cyber attacks or attacks on high-ranking military and nuclear experts, Michael told
Tagesspiegel
.
“If Israel reacts very strongly, we will probably end up in a situation of escalation that could become widespread,” fears Meir Litvak from the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. However, it is not in Israel's interest to start a regional war with Iran, as the country is already waging war against the Islamist Palestinian organization Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The longer-term consequences for Israel would likely be catastrophic.
In its response, Israel must take into account the positions of its allies who have helped it repel Iranian attacks, says Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. In addition, experts agree that Israel cannot strike back without consulting Washington.
International community warns of conflagration: Israel should hold back
The international community, however, is expressly urging Israel to exercise restraint in order to avoid a conflagration. On Monday (April 15), Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) appealed to Israel to “contribute to the de-escalation” of the situation in the Middle East. Great Britain and France also called for this.
US President Joe Biden said on Monday (April 15) during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Schia al-Sudani at the White House that he wanted to "work for a ceasefire that brings the hostages home and prevents them from breaking out." “The Middle East conflict will spread even more than is already the case.” The USA had previously made it clear that it would not support Israel in a possible counterattack against Iran.
However, according to Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, there will be an answer. Visiting the Nevatim air base, which was involved in repelling the attack late Saturday evening, Halevi said on Monday: "As we look forward, we are considering our steps." An attack with so many rockets on Israel's territory would be met with one Follow reaction.
(bg/dpa)