Donald Trump is said to have a solution to ending the Ukraine war. But experts doubt whether this plan will really silence the guns.
Mar-a-Lago - Former U.S. President Donald Trump has said privately that he could end Russia's war in Ukraine by pressuring Ukraine to give up some territory, according to people familiar with the plan. Some foreign policy experts said Trump's idea would reward Russian President Vladimir Putin and condone the use of force to violate internationally recognized borders.
Trump's proposal is to pressure Ukraine to cede Crimea and the border region of Donbas to Russia, according to people who have spoken to Trump or his advisers and spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions were confidential. This approach, which has not been previously reported, would dramatically reverse the policies of President Biden, who has prioritized curbing Russian aggression and providing military aid to Ukraine.
Trump: Both Russia and Ukraine want to “save face” and a way out
In his efforts to return to power, the presumptive Republican nominee has frequently boasted that if he wins the U.S. election, he could broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. Even before he would take office. But he has repeatedly refused to publicly explain how he would quickly end a war that has raged for more than two years and killed tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians.
Trump foreign policy thinkers say they are addressing China's threat to U.S. interests and seeking ways to reverse Russia's increasing dependence on China for military, industrial and economic support. You have also spoken out in favor of limiting NATO expansion.
Privately, Trump has said he believes both Russia and Ukraine "want to save face, they want a way out" and that people in parts of Ukraine would be fine with being part of Russia, according to a person familiar with the matter discussed directly with Trump.
Russia wants to annex Ukrainian land beyond the Donbass region and Crimea
Accepting Russian control over parts of Ukraine would expand the reach of Putin's dictatorship after the biggest land war in Europe since World War II. Some of Trump's supporters have tried to convince him of such an outcome. “I spent 100 percent of my time talking to Trump about Ukraine,” said Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a former Trump critic who is now an ally. “He has to pay a price. In the end he can’t win,” Graham added, referring to Putin.
Russia has already said it wants to annex Ukrainian land beyond the Donbass region and Crimea, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he will not accept the cession of territory. Trading territory for a ceasefire would leave Ukraine in a worse position without assurances that Russia will not rearm and resume hostilities as it has in the past, said Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, an impartial think tank. “This is a terrible deal,” she said of Trump’s proposal.
US President Biden wants to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities - Republicans against more funding
The Trump campaign declined to directly answer questions for this article. "All speculation about President Trump's plan comes from unnamed and uninformed sources who have no idea what is going on or what will happen," campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump is the only one talking about stopping the killing.”
Biden said in his State of the Union address that Putin is "on the rise, invading Ukraine and sowing chaos across Europe and beyond" and that Ukraine is trying to defend itself. The president has outlined a long-term plan to support Ukraine, strengthening the country's military capabilities this year so it is better able to go on the offensive next year. But U.S. aid is already in jeopardy as House Speaker Republican Rep. Mike Johnson faces a revolt from Republican hardliners who oppose further funding and are clamoring to oust him.
Trump is putting pressure on Republicans against further US aid to Ukraine
Outside of office, Trump has pressured congressional Republicans to oppose further U.S. support for the Ukrainian war effort, and a return to the White House would greatly increase his influence in the debate. Given the political dynamics in the United States, European allies have boosted the military industry to the point where they hope to replace a significant portion of current U.S. aid to Kiev. But analysts believe Ukraine's ability to continue the fight would realistically be weakened if Trump succeeds in blocking further U.S. aid.
In many ways, Trump's plan is consistent with his approach as president. His preference for high-profile summits over policy details, his confidence in his own negotiating skills, and his impatience with conventional diplomatic protocols were all hallmarks of his approach to foreign affairs in his first term.
Trump has repeatedly complimented Putin and avoided criticizing him
In his eight years as the Republican front-runner, Trump has largely shifted the party's prevailing direction, becoming more skeptical of foreign interventions such as military aid to Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly complimented Putin, expressed admiration for his dictatorial rule and avoided criticizing him as much as possible, most recently over the prison death of political opponent Alexei Navalny. He did not advocate for the release of Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter who was held in Russia for a year without charge or trial.
Trump has refused to acknowledge Russian interference in the 2016 election and has falsely accused Ukraine of trying to help Democratic rival Hillary Clinton - a smear spread by Russian spy services. His attempt to withhold aid to Ukraine in 2019 unless Zelensky announced an investigation into Biden led to Trump's first impeachment trial. In a phone call with Zelensky that year that Trump described as "perfect," the US president pressured Zelensky to investigate Biden and the discredited theory that Ukraine, not Russia, tried to interfere in the 2016 election . The Republican-controlled Senate later acquitted Trump.
Obama advisor: Trump's position threatens the security of the USA and Europe
“Former President Trump's inexplicable and admiring relationship with Putin, coupled with his unprecedented hostility toward NATO, cannot give Europe or Ukraine any confidence in his dealings with Russia,” said Tom Donilon, President Barack Obama's national security adviser. “Trump's comments encouraging Russia to do whatever it wants with our European allies are among the most disturbing and dangerous statements made by a major party presidential candidate. His position represents a clear and present threat to the security of the United States and Europe.”
Graham said he has warned against giving coveted land to Russia and wants Trump to lay out a path for Ukraine to join NATO. “For me, the way to end this war is to ensure that Ukraine is admitted to NATO and the EU,” he said. “He doesn’t say much about it. I don't know if he thought about it too much."
In his public promises to end the war, Trump deliberately withheld details about how he would negotiate with Putin and Zelensky. “I'm going to say certain things to each of them that I wouldn't say to the rest of the world, and so I can't tell you much more than that,” Trump said in a March interview with his former adviser Sebastian Gorka.
Viktor Orban is said to have spoken to Trump about Ukraine
His public silence about his negotiating strategy has given others the space to fill in the gaps. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has angered European allies with his autocratic and pro-Russian tendencies, met with Trump last month. He then claimed that Trump told him he would force an end to the war because he would “not spend a penny” on Ukraine. Orban's statement was false, but Trump did not want to contradict him publicly after entertaining him all night at Mar-a-Lago and admiring his toughness and anti-immigrant positions, according to a person close to Trump. She spoke on condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.
During the meeting, Orban spoke at length about Soviet history, Russia's desire for Ukrainian territory and the military challenges facing Ukraine, the person said. Trump listened but didn't commit, the person said. A spokesman for Orban did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump's peace plan for Ukraine should include cession of territories in Crimea and Donbass
Trump's plan for Ukraine was revealed in Washington last November at a meeting at the Heritage Foundation attended by right-wing foreign policy figures and a delegation from the European Council on Foreign Relations. Former Trump White House adviser Michael Anton is said to have described the expected contours of Trump's peace plan as Ukraine's cession of territory in Crimea and Donbass, as a limit to NATO expansion and as an enticement for Putin to reduce his growing dependence on to loosen up China. That was said by several people who were at the meeting and spoke on condition of anonymity to describe a private discussion.
Reached by phone in March, Anton said he had not spoken to Trump in 18 to 24 months and denied knowing anything about Trump's plans for Ukraine. He did not respond to further questions. James Carafano, a Heritage Foundation official who called the meeting, declined to comment on the private discussion but criticized the idea of separating Russia from China. “This is Stupid Idea 101,” he said. “Anything you could give Russia that it would truly value would jeopardize all other interests. The relationship between Russia and China can only be resolved by making Russia a weaker partner.”
Expert: Trump people think Russia is being pushed towards China
Weaning Russia from China would likely require easing sanctions as the Kremlin has turned to Beijing to offset sweeping Western sanctions on its energy, defense and financial sectors, Jeremy Shapiro said. The head of the Washington office of the European Council on Foreign Relations brought the group's delegation to the meeting in November. Shapiro declined to comment on the details of the conversation. He cited ground rules at the November event that prohibited attribution to anything said, but he said Trump's peace plan for Ukraine did not appear to be detailed.
“The Trump people feel that one of the great sins of the Ukraine war and Russia policy in general is to push Russia toward China and make it even more dependent on China,” he said. Trump's "basic approach to all things is to get men together in a room to discuss" without necessarily having detailed plans in advance, Shapiro said.
Critic says Trump team views Ukraine war as a territorial dispute
Russia experts doubted that Trump's peace efforts could be successful. Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who was Trump's top Russia adviser and has since become a prominent critic, said it reminded her of 2017: when unvetted foreigners and businessmen approached Trump with various peace plans and he thought , he could sit down with Russia and Ukraine and mediate based on his personal charisma.
Trump's team "thinks very much in silos, that this is just a Ukraine-Russia thing," Hill said. “They see it as a territorial dispute and not as a dispute about the future of European security and the global order as a whole.
Even drawing a ceasefire line may not prove so easy. In September 2022, the Kremlin announced that it would annex four southern and eastern Ukrainian provinces, including the Donbas region but going far beyond that. Since Kiev still controls much of the territory, any attempt to end the war through territorial concessions is likely to involve protracted bargaining. Unless both sides simply agree to freeze the front lines that existed at the time of the agreement.
Analyst: US has no leverage to force Ukraine to give up territory
Ukraine and European allies would likely resist Trump's efforts to reach an agreement with Moscow, Hill said. She added that the United States would have limited influence in a unilateral deal because meaningful sanctions relief depends on European cooperation.
“No amount of leverage that the United States has will force the Ukrainian leadership to adopt policies that would be domestic suicide,” said Michael Kofman, a Russia-Ukraine war analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonpartisan research center. “And no leverage that the United States has can force Ukraine to cede territory or make these kinds of concessions. This is a situation where when you are willing to give one hand, the other side very quickly wants the rest of the arm.”
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English on April 8, 2024 at the “Washingtonpost.com” - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.