NATO considers Russia its “most significant and direct threat.” But now, with the Kremlin's war in Ukraine entrenched and in a turbulent global geopolitical context, the Atlantic Alliance is analyzing whether something more needs to be added to that strategic concept and the steps to follow in its future relationship with Moscow. The military organization does not want to limit its analysis and action on Russia to Ukraine, but is seriously concerned about the increase in the Kremlin's influence and destabilization operations in Bosnia, Moldova and Georgia—three of the weakest links in Europe—and also in North Africa and the Sahel, where the presence of paramilitary organizations linked to Moscow has also increased. The Alliance warns in a confidential report about these actions of the Kremlin and opens the debate on the steps to follow to respond to this threat.
The document, which the foreign ministers of the 32 allies will review this Wednesday, does not propose operational solutions, according to several allied sources familiar with the analysis, but it does put some factors on the table and reviews Moscow's destabilizing activity in a very hot global scenario in which some allies, such as Poland, have come to warn that Europe lives in a pre-war moment. However, the increase in the war threat to the continent is not on the table, emphasizes the United States ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith. Yes, it is important that Moscow raises its stake in the so-called hybrid war. “We don't see an imminent threat to NATO territory, but it remains a major concern,” says Smith.
In the weeks leading up to the full-scale invasion launched into Ukraine by the Kremlin on February 24, 2022, there were many signs that Russia was preparing for combat (although the scale was unknown). The scenario now is different, Smith pointed out: the signs are not there. However, Russia is increasing its disinformation and propaganda campaigns not only in NATO allies and Ukraine, but also – and on a significant scale – in Bosnia, Georgia and Moldova, considered “partners at risk” by the Alliance and candidates. to enter the European Union. An approach that Russia wants to reverse.
The focus, on Kosovo and Serbia
Moscow, which also has its focus on Kosovo and Serbia (a country traditionally close to the Kremlin that it seeks to use as leverage) is trying to exploit the political instability of Bosnia, a strategic country in the Balkans and with which, although with conditions, the EU has opened accession negotiations. There it has activated campaigns to undermine democratic trust and confidence in the West, undermine its relationship with NATO and its path to membership in the EU, allied sources say.
Also in Georgia and Moldova, two particularly vulnerable partners, since they have part of their territory occupied by Russian troops, recalls Natia Seskuria, from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) analysis center and a great expert on the region and Russian activity. Moscow seeks to use that occupied territory—South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the case of Georgia and Transnistria in the case of Moldova—as a destabilizing lever. “We have seen an increase in operations focused on building a public opinion more sympathetic to Russia, but also resistant to NATO and the EU; and an attempt to carve out the so-called 'neutrality,' says Seskuria by phone.
Experts like Seskuria warn, as outlined in the Alliance report, that Russia is working hard to feed like-minded parties and also nationalist politicians, while trying to ensure that these countries do not break the economic ties that they still have with Moscow and that they can still use as another of the pressure keys. Among other options on the table to counter Russian maneuvers, NATO maintains, for example, helping Bosnia improve its military and elevate its role in the three partners at risk with more information campaigns and some form of economic cooperation through Alliance programs.
Russia's war against Ukraine has entered its third year and NATO is adjusting to the new reality. One in which the Kremlin is also strengthening its positions in the Sahel – where the EU has less and less military presence – and where it is forging more diplomatic relations in countries like Niger, Mali and Chad. All in a particularly unstable region in which the presence of mercenaries such as those of the Wagner company has increased. The Alliance, which turns 75 on Thursday, is now analyzing its role in the area and how to increase the relationship with some of the partners in the region.
And in this debate about the view towards Russia, NATO – of which Spain has been a member since 1982 – wants to review what is being done. This analysis will mark the foundations of the future relationship with a country that has become unpredictable.
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