On video: shooting attack in a concert hall near Moscow/use according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law
When few know how to name the current leader of the "Islamic State" (ISIS) organization or its predecessors since its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in an American operation in Syria in 2019.
From the "Islamic Caliphate" that spread over a third of the territories of Syria and Iraq and imposed a regime of terror on millions of people, only horror stories remain, and the United States maintains a presence in the region to prevent the organization from re-establishing itself.
But unlike military capabilities or charismatic figures, it is much more difficult to eliminate the idea itself. It migrates to new regions, feeds on chaos and religious and sectarian divisions, poverty and dictatorship.
This is what ISIS has done in recent years, when it targeted Afghanistan, among other things. He was active in it even when the international forces were deployed in the country and protected its pro-Western government in Kabul, but the branch of the organization in the region - known as Khorasan - strengthened even more after the withdrawal of the United States army in 2021 and the fall of Afghanistan back into the hands of the Taliban.
The four terrorists who carried out the attack in Moscow last week/screenshot, Telegram
The Taliban and ISIS are bitter rivals, and the former may still appear moderate next to its jihadist rival. As a ruling power no longer required to fight foreign armies, the Taliban is keen to preserve its regime. He even committed in the withdrawal agreement with the United States to prevent terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS from operating from Afghanistan, as happened on the eve of the September 11 attacks.
Despite the fight waged against it by the Taliban, ISIS in Afghanistan manages to carry out severe attacks, especially against the Shia minority, whom it considers infidels. When terrorism remains within the borders of Afghanistan, it does not receive global attention, but when it sends its arms to other countries, the token begins to fall.
The attack last Friday in the concert hall in Moscow was one of the most successful in terms of ISIS as an organization in general and its branch in Afghanistan in particular. He described it as an attack against "Christians", even though the rock show that was about to open before the massacre had nothing to do with any religion.
Russia, in the eyes of ISIS, is no less a great enemy than the United States. Moscow's war against the organization in Syria, alongside Bashar Assad, and its conflicts in Chechnya and Afghanistan have made it a favorite target in the eyes of the Islamist Jihad organizations.
Russia's immersion in the war in Ukraine diverted resources and attention from other regions, and the four ISIS terrorists took advantage of this security breach to strike at the heart of Russia, not far from Vladimir Putin's Kremlin.
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The attack in Moscow shattered the illusion of security that Putin sells to the Russian public
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They fail to eradicate the ISIS affiliate in the country. Taliban fighters in Kabul/Reuters
ISIS-Khorsan, which is named after the ancient Islamic name of the Central Asian region, manages to recruit supporters from around the region saturated with poverty and oppression, such as the four members of the cell that carried out the attack in Moscow, who came from Tajikistan.
The leader of ISIS-Khursan is an ambitious young man named Sanuullah Jaafari, 29 years old, known by the nickname Shahab al-Muhajar.
He turned the Afghan branch of the "Islamic State" into one of the strongest terrorist networks in the world. He was initially reported killed in Afghanistan last June, but two sources in the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban told Reuters he was wounded and survived. He is believed to be living in the chaotic border province of Baluchistan.
New generation
Jaafari, who was appointed as the emir of ISIS-Khorsan in 2020, actually stepped into the vacuum left by al-Baghdadi and other figures who were associated with the organization at the height of its power. Although he is far from the fame that surrounded al-Baghdadi in his days as a replacement in his own eyes, his rise and success in attracting a new generation of fighters indicate that everyone has a replacement, even if a little different.
The most significant attack against foreigners by ISIS-Khorsan was in 2021, when a suicide bomber of the organization exploded at the international airport in Kabul during the American withdrawal. 13 American soldiers were killed alongside dozens of Afghan civilians who sought to escape the terror of the Taliban. In September 2022, the group claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide attack outside the Russian embassy in Kabul.
ISIS-Khorsan returned to the headlines at the beginning of the year, with a deadly double suicide attack in the territory of its great enemy, Shiite Iran. Almost a hundred people were killed in explosions at a memorial ceremony for the commander of the Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani, who led the fighting of the Shia militias in the region against the Sunni organization.
It was the deadliest attack in Iran since the Islamic revolution in 1979, as in the Russian case, Iran also did not take advantage of the intelligence provided by the United States to thwart the terrorist attack.
Jaafari, who Taliban officials said is an Afghan of Tajik descent, previously fought in the Afghan army before joining ISIS. And while the Taliban relies on Pashtun fighters—Afghanistan's largest ethnic group—ISIS-Khorsan recruits Tajiks and Uzbeks across Central Asia. The organization's strongholds are in the north of Afghanistan and in the east, and they are spreading to other countries in the region in light of the Taliban's failure to eliminate them.
ISIS-Khorsan may also try to hit the US. Soldiers carry an American space coffin past Biden/Reuters
Washington's ability to reveal in advance the intentions of the ISIS branch in Afghanistan, which was established at the end of 2014, shows its intelligence capabilities, but on the other hand shows its limitations in thwarting them without the presence on the ground. Senior American officials fear that the appetite of Jaafari, who has a ten million dollar bounty on his head, will increase to planning attacks on the territory of the United States itself.
"They remain determined to attack us and our homeland," warned Frank McKenzie, who commanded the US Central Command during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. "I think the chances of that are probably higher now than they were a few years ago." The series of recent ISIS-Khorsan attacks has led to heightened alertness in Europe as well, especially in France in anticipation of the terrorist attacks being held for the Paris Olympics this summer.
In the context of the war in Gaza, the re-establishment of ISIS, in a different configuration, with other leaders and with new ambitions, should penetrate those who believe that Hamas and its idea can be completely eradicated by military means alone. Without a regular and logical plan for the day after the war, with a real horizon, Hamas, in one form or another, will find fertile ground for its reorganization.
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