Everything was discreet. And without public uproar. Nobody wants to make a fuss, much less start a public fight. But the trip of Rodrigo Valdés – the IMF emissary – to Argentina ended
with friction and sparks
. The head of the IMF privately raised his concerns about the progress of the economy and also the social impact of the brutal libertarian adjustment.
Valdés – an inflexible bureaucrat – also dedicated himself to “marking the field” and making one thing clear: that the IMF
does not have, nor will it have any responsibility for the adjustment.
In Washington – Kristalina's order – they fear that Milei will “get out of hand” and that they will then accuse the IMF of any mess. That's why her spokespersons overreact social concern.
Javier Milei is upset by so much
“lack of understanding”
from the IMF. He always repeats with pride: “we do more than what they ask for.” Also, because he believes that they delay talking about fresh money and supporting an immediate exit from the stocks. For Milei it is crucial.
Valdés had secret meetings with businessmen and economists. In that intimacy he said clearly:
“we are not going to give a loan to finance a possible escape, nor dollarization
. ”
In the Casa Rosada they are furious because – in private and strict reserve – the Fund's technicians object to the central axes of the current economic structure: they
do not trust the exchange rate policy
; and they warn of the effects of the excessive monetary tourniquet.
That friction with the IMF motivated
several attacks by Milei against Valdés
. He first sent Manuel Adorni to respond to Valdés' statements about the social insensitivity of the Casa Rosada.
And later the President himself spoke:
“those who propose a devaluation understand nothing. It’s not going to happen
.” He pronounced the phrase after the hermetic summit between Milei, Caputo and Valdés. In that meeting, the director of the IMF specified the issues that concern the IMF, which bother the Casa Rosada so much.
These are three central questions. First
the objections to the accounting fiscal adjustment:
they do not believe that it is a solution to postpone payments and liquidate retirements to show an ephemeral fiscal surplus. They say it is not sustainable.
They also criticize another central point: the extreme monetary policy to dry up the market.
It would be the “Dryer Plan”
. Valdés questions the level of the rate.
IMF bureaucrats see two central dangers in this overacting. First:
that the recession becomes an unmanageable hyper-recession.
Also, the total absence of money in circulation causes de facto dollarization. Gita Gopinath already said it in her office:
“we are against dollarization.”
According to the secret “paper” of the IMF bureaucrats, there is also
an incipient exchange rate delay
. The dollar – despite the December megadevaluation – has a parity similar to that which existed with Sergio Massa. Inflation is raging and that is why Valdés asks to accelerate the crawling peg of 2%. A work by the cereal companies states that the exchange rate had a fall of 13% in February.
The field warned that the fall settlement will be good, but not as desired by the BCRA. There will be no green rain.
The BCRA accumulated reserves, but the result of Santiago Bausili's wrist: it reduced the payment of imports to a minimum
and “accountingly” made the foreign trade numbers fictitiously shine
. Caputo does not want to know anything about the exchange rate claims: “
devaluation is not in the plans.”
It is an arm wrestling match. In April, the BCRA – subordinated to Caputo – must disburse US$5,000 million for imports.
Strong maturities are also coming: three payments to China for US$1,666 million.
The Foreign Ministry
would be setting up a mission to Beijing
: the consecutive payment must be made in July, August and September.
Milei has an erratic and emotional foreign policy. That complicates things, and on top of that Diana Mondino doesn't help with statements that irritate Beijing.
The Government's misdeeds cloud central negotiations. Now there is turbulence with Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Chile and China.
The last straw was the Casa Rosada blooper about the trucks sent by China and which led to an unprecedented – they never do – clarification from the eastern embassy: “the information is completely incorrect.”
Mondino will have to deal with all this
. She was already a “firefighter” in the crisis with Lula, where she had the silent help of Daniel Scioli. For the “Pichichi” she was able to enter the Government.
The management problems of the Casa Rosada are serious. Within a month he issued
two decrees that ended in scandal
.
First, it was the President's aborted salary increase. Now, the adjustment for retirees: a hassle.
The first text talked about increases. But it set a ceiling, which made it impracticable to raise the minimum.
Later it was corrected and in the end it ended with a painful decision: to pay April's retirement benefits in two parts.
The same thing happens with layoffs. Milei announced 70,000 layoffs and the next day they had to correct it.
The confusion generated by these management problems led to
an unprecedented letter to the Chief of Staff.
The letter is dated March 15. In their brief text, a dozen entities of the agro-industrial complex ask Nicolás Posse not to exempt qualified contracted personnel from the Ministry of Agriculture, SENASA and INASE.
The question of the Supreme Court also created turbulence. There were
three important business entities that shouted
: AmCham – with a direct line to Marc Stanley –, ACDE – in line with Francisco –, and the influential IDEA.
The documents would have been motivated by large international law firms that work with the “multi”. They want to know if the appointment of Ariel Lijo implies that Milei intends for the Supreme Court to be managed from now on with the logic that Comodoro Py has – Criminal Justice – to resolve conflicts.
Ricardo Lorenzetti
is ecstatic
about setting up this secret negotiation. The magistrate would have convinced the President – via Karina – that with the new formation he will guarantee that the Supreme Court will endorse all his reforms.
Lorenzetti – also – believes that the changes will allow him to achieve a long-awaited personal wish: to be president of the Court again. In these last five years the magistrate
did and undid everything
, to regain the seat in the Judiciary. This caused enmity with the other members of the Court.
Now, the plan has only one obstacle: the renewal of authorities in the Court will take place in October, when there will still be a majority that favors the renewal of Horacio Rosatti or the return of Carlos Rosenkrantz.
The “red circle”
insists that Cristina was aware of everything
and that – quietly – she let the negotiation move forward.
The former president gave few signs about a negotiation. But she talked about the subject among her intimate friends and, enigmatic, she said: “
With Lijo, at least, you can talk.”
Milei was worried about Rosatti's statements: he said that the Court was not going to solve the problems that politics had.
In any case, the President is confident in his destiny. This was expressed in the meeting with the influential members of the Group of 6.
The meeting was organized by Eduardo Eurnekian. The “capo” of Airports is a fluid and direct channel between the President and the establishment. Eurnekian – in this case – overcame an inertia: Milei had rejected a meeting with the G6 during his stay in Rome. At the beginning there were jokes between the two. Milei said: “
Eduardo, you taught me a lot.”
The meeting was in "the freezer", as Milei's office is called. The temperature does not exceed 18 degrees. Only water was served. Milei was exultant:
"we are starting growth for the next 20 years
."
And, sincerely, he added:
“this is at the expense of the sacrifice of the people, who are having a bad time
. ”
But he added: “
Despite that, the polls continue to give us good results. People understand
.” Adelmo Gabbi questioned him directly: “President, when do we get out of the stocks?” Milei responded:
“quickly. They are going to be surprised. "Ahead of schedule."
Gabbi insisted. Milei completed. She said it this way:
“we are going to dry up the peso market and free float it.”