A mathematical model determines that
the Luftwaffe would have defeated the RAF in the Battle of Britain
if the Nazi attack had started
earlier
and concentrated on the airfields.
Mathematicians at the University of York have used a statistical technique to address some of the big "what if" questions in the momentous Second World War battle for
dominance of Britain's skies.
English Prime Minister Winston Churchill aboard HMS Prince of Wales during the Battle of Britain (AP).
What would have happened if deciding on the fly to bomb London had not happened? What if
a more anxious Hitler
had pushed for an earlier start to the campaign? What if Göring had focused on attacking British airfields throughout the entire period of the battle?
These are just some of the alternative scenarios that have formed a long-running debate among World War II historians and enthusiasts about what might have affected the outcome of the battle, which took place
between May and October 1940.
If Adolf Hitler had attacked earlier, the battle would have been in favor of the Germans (EFE).
Could have changed the course of the war
Mathematicians at the University of York have developed a new model to explore what the impact of changes to
Luftwaffe tactics
would have been . Their approach uses statistical models to calculate how this battle might have played out if history had followed one of several alternative courses.
The researchers, who published their work in the
Journal of Military History
in 2020 , say the method could now be used as a tool to investigate other historical controversies and unrealized possibilities, giving us a deeper understanding of events such as
the Battle of the Atlantic
(the longest continuous military of World War II).
English Spitfire P7350 Hurricane LF363 fighter aircraft (EFE).
The statistical technique is called "weighted bootstrapping," and the
computer simulation
is like taking a ball for each day's events of the Battle of Britain and putting it in a lottery ticket. Balls are drawn, read, and replaced to create thousands of alternate series of matches over days, but in a different order, and perhaps with some days with more activity or none at all.
The researchers then repeated the process to test the "what ifs" of the battle, making some days more or less likely to be chosen, depending on how
a protagonist (such as Hitler)
would have changed their decisions if they had been using different tactics, reports
Eureka Alert
.
A German plane that was shot down in the skies over England.
Co-author of the paper, Dr Jamie Wood from the Department of Mathematics at the University of York, said: "The weighted bootstrapping technique allowed us to model alternative campaigns in which the Luftwaffe prolongs or contracts different phases of the battle and varies its objectives. .
"The Luftwaffe would only have been able to make available the necessary bases in France to launch an air attack on Britain in June at the earliest, so our alternative campaign brings forward the air campaign by
three weeks
. We tested the impact of this and other counterfactuals. varying the probabilities with which we choose individual days.
The results provide statistical support for a change in tactics that several historians have argued
could have brought the Luftwaffe victory
in the summer of 1940: the simulations suggested that if they had started the campaign earlier and focused on bombing airfields, the RAF she could have been defeated,
paving the way for a German ground invasion.
German air attack on England.
According to the mathematical model, the impact of these two changes would have been dramatic. Although it is impossible to estimate what the actual statistical chances of an RAF victory were in July 1940, the study suggests that whatever Britain's prospects, an earlier start and a focus on airfields
would have changed the battle significantly
to favor of the Germans.
For example, if the probability of a British victory in the actual battle had been 50%, these two tactical changes would have reduced it to
less than 10%.
If the actual probability of British victory was 98%, the same changes would have reduced this to just 34%.
Europe Press.
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