As of: March 28, 2024, 10:35 a.m
By: Victoria Krumbeck
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The terrorist attack near Moscow exposed Russia's vulnerabilities. The population is afraid. What awaits Putin after the attacks.
Moscow – The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall with at least 143 deaths shocked Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is faced with a decision about how to proceed. Instead of concentrating on further steps in the Ukraine war, strengthened by the good results of the presidential election, he has to worry about the trust of the population. The attack unsettles many Russians and exposes Russia's weaknesses after the terror near Moscow.
Putin's loss of control after the attack near Moscow – Russians are “scared”
Putin actually received a mandate to continue his political course after the Russian election, in which, according to official Russian information, he received 88 percent of the vote. Just a few days after the election, the Kremlin no longer spoke of a “special military operation,” as the war in Ukraine has been called since the attack on Ukraine, but of a “state of war.” Worrying: It is estimated that around 22 million votes were manipulated in the presidential election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the public's trust after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. © Mikhail Metzel/dpa
With the attack near Moscow, which the IS branch Khorasan Province (ISPK) has claimed responsibility for, a new danger has emerged for Putin and the population. “Ordinary Russians who ten days ago thought they were voting for a trustworthy leader are now afraid of the future,” writes journalist and correspondent Roger Boys in The
Times of London.
According to military expert Nico Lange, the alleged terrorist attack exposed the “weakness of the Russian power system,” as he told
ZDF
. “Through aggressive rhetoric, through particularly tough action,” Russia is now trying to cover up the Kremlin’s weakness.
Terrorist attack near Moscow: Russia blames Ukraine – big impact for Putin
Warnings of an attack by the Islamic State (IS), which came from the USA two weeks earlier, were ignored by Russia. Now the Kremlin is trying to use a theory to implicate Ukraine in the attack in order to distract from its own failure. Russian politicians are increasingly saying that the alleged perpetrators acted on behalf of Ukraine. So far the authorities have arrested eleven people, including the four shooters.
Putin's options probably limited after the terror: “A narrative has failed”
However, Putin is faced with a dilemma after the attack near Moscow. According to Boys, there are three scenarios as to how Putin can deal with the situation: On the one hand, the Kremlin boss could stick with the connections between the terrorists and Kiev. But “Putin propagandists have gone too far in trying to link Kiev to the Islamic State and are now speaking vaguely about Western puppet masters instead. Then you know that a narrative has failed,” writes Boys.
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Another option would be to freeze the war in Ukraine and focus on the general war on terror. This would allow Putin to return the focus to security in Russia. The third scenario would be Putin's loss of control. He allowed “internal feuds within the bloated secret service apparatus to get out of control,” analyzes Boys. “The return of Islamist terror to Russia was both predictable and ignored,” the expert continued.
Putin between the Ukraine war and IS terror: “Great danger for Russia”
If Putin acknowledged that ISIS was behind the attack near Moscow, he would be expected to take action against them. “But he can’t do that because he has tied up all his forces, all his security forces – including the FSB secret service – in the war of aggression against Ukraine, where he is not achieving what he would have liked to achieve,” said Lange. The IS connection to Kiev seems to be a way out for Putin so that he can continue to focus on the war in Ukraine.
But the population in Russia seems unsettled: “Fear and mistrust have already led to the emergence of all sorts of conspiracy theories that question and undermine everything the Kremlin has said about the attack [...],” writes intelligence expert Andrei Soldierov in the British
Guardian
. The danger of further IS attacks and the further war in Ukraine is “a very big danger for Russia and could also contribute to destabilization within the country,” explains Lange. Every decision Putin makes carries a risk that could ultimately unsettle Russians and result in Vladimir Putin losing control.
(vk)