As of: March 28, 2024, 8:30 a.m
By: Fabian Hartmann
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What's next in Russia's war against Ukraine? Putin is said to be considering two scenarios of future hostilities.
Moscow – The war in Ukraine has already lasted more than two years. At the weekend, the Ukrainian armed forces reported a successful military strike on ships and infrastructure of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, but Ukraine recently suffered losses on the front. But how could the war between Russia and Ukraine continue?
As the
Kyiv Post
reports, recent anonymous intelligence from circles close to the Kremlin suggests that Vladimir Putin is considering two possible strategies for the further course of the Ukraine war. According to information collected by the Riga-based
Meduza
intelligence service from people connected to the Russian government, most of Russia's political elite are certain that Vladimir Putin will continue the war.
Is Putin preparing for a new major offensive against Ukraine?
What goals Putin might set for himself in the near future can currently only remain a matter of speculation. A “faction” within the Kremlin-affiliated information source believes that Putin has identified Ukraine's vulnerabilities following the setbacks Ukraine has suffered on the front lines recently. So he could now be ready to step up his efforts for a “decisive triumph”. This would amount to the capture of the capital, Kiev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech in Moscow on March 18. © IMAGO/Artem Priakhin
Another faction, which is also close to the Putin administration, assumes that the Russian leadership is setting itself “more realistic goals”. One such could be the capture of the second largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in the east of the country.
Sources close to the Kremlin emphasize Kharkiv's militarily important location for further military operations
Putin has repeatedly pointed out the importance of Kharkiv in Russian military strategy. According to him, a so-called medical zone around the Belgorod region near the border could be important, as this could curb shelling near the border.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained Putin's proposal to the state news agency
Tass
: "The president believes that against the background of drone attacks, against the background of artillery shelling of our territory, security measures will be taken for certain settlements on our territory, especially social institutions and residential buildings .”
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Meanwhile, far-right Russian blogger Igor Skurlatov criticized the plan via Telegram: “What about the sanitary zone that Vladimir Putin talked about recently? We all agreed that the border of this zone would best run along the western border of Ukraine. But no. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov decided that it would pass through [the Russian regional capital] Belgorod. Interesting turn of events. We will never win like this!” Reason for the excitement: A “mass evacuation” on the Russian side, which Skurlatov fervently hopes will only be a “temporary measure”.
Sources close to the Kremlin believe that another major offensive is possible - that would require mobilization
Although it is not yet possible to clearly deduce possible future acts of war from Putin's statements, sources close to the Kremlin also believe that another major offensive on Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, is possible. It is certain that such a scenario would require additional mobilization efforts and further military build-up by Russia.
Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Kharkiv region has been one of the main theaters of hostilities. After a large-scale counteroffensive in 2022, Ukraine had recaptured much of the area. However, the city itself is still a target of Russian bombing.
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