As of: March 18, 2024, 11:35 p.m
By: Mark Stoffers
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Split
Russia goes on the offensive in the Ukraine war.
According to ex-CIA boss Petraeus, immediate weapons assistance from the USA is needed to stop the advance.
Washington, DC – Things are currently bad for the defenders in the Ukraine war.
The front is crumbling and Ukraine is apparently lacking in the fight against Vladimir Putin's troops at every turn.
Former CIA chief David Petraeus also assesses the situation as extremely precarious and paints an even bleaker picture for the spring.
The former US general believes that Russia is on the advance and could go even further on the offensive as the weather conditions improve, as Ukraine lacks weapons, soldiers and supplies.
Weapons deliveries for Ukraine: A lack of ammunition could be fatal for Kiev in the Ukraine war
So replenishment seems to be urgently needed.
However, further aid for Ukraine is currently difficult as the $60 billion package has still not been approved by the US House of Representatives.
However, time is of the essence as the required arms deliveries are increasingly crucial for the course of the war in Ukraine.
“Europe has already taken a step forward by announcing $50 billion in aid for Kiev in February and has further demonstrated the solidarity of the commitment,” said Petraeus in an interview with the Italian news portal La
Stampa
about the current situation in the Ukraine war.
In his opinion, it is important “that the USA now follows the same path.” However, Petraeus is certain that the arms deliveries will arrive in Ukraine.
For the ex-general, however, “the problem is different.” Petraeus’s analysis is that weapons assistance is needed “immediately, not after a long period of time.”
“Ukraine is already saving on the use of artillery.
And there are concrete fears that anti-aircraft defenses, weapons systems and interceptors could further reduce the operational range due to the lack of ammunition.”
Soldiers in the Ukraine War: Kiev is running out of men on the battlefield against Russia
In addition, Ukraine is increasingly lacking soldiers on the battlefield in the fight against Russia.
As Putin's forces appear to field an endless supply of troops against the front line, the defenders are running out of "men in the field."
Therefore, Petraeus makes it clear that the “Kiev parliament and Zelensky’s leadership” must review the rules on conscription.
“The Ukrainian front lines consist of soldiers whose average age is over 40 years old.
Kiev must review troop rotation, strengthen the rear guard and expand conscription.” The former CIA chief is aware that this is a sensitive issue and a challenge, but must be “resolved quickly.”
Ukraine war: Pinpricks from Kiev prevent Putin's troops from advancing further
Currently, the only thing that speaks in favor of the Ukrainian fighters is that they are able to contain the advance of Putin's troops through targeted pinpricks in the Russian border region by pro-Ukrainian partisans and attacks on oil refineries as well as attacks against the Black Sea Fleet.
“There are two aspects that should not be ignored when using drones and their guarantees.
First, they destroyed a third of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea and forced the Russians to withdraw ships from the strategic port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
That was and is a key element.”
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Because of the lack of ammunition in the war against Russia, Ukraine has to change its strategy.
© Roman Chop/dpa
The other aspect is that “Ukraine has dealt a serious blow to the Russian energy industry thanks to drones,” Petraeus continued.
“Refineries have been destroyed and the export of gas and crude oil has been restricted, as has the production of petroleum derivatives that impact the armed forces.”
Long list for arms deliveries in the Ukraine war: anti-aircraft and artillery vehicles have “priority”
According to Petraeus' assessment, two types of vehicles apart from ammunition must have priority when it comes to arms deliveries to Ukraine.
“Artillery and anti-aircraft vehicles,” he says in the interview and elaborates.
“But the list is extensive.
However, some of these weapons are manufactured in Ukraine, such as sea and air drones. However, Ukraine still needs the materials to produce these drones.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are continuing their offensive efforts to keep Ukraine's defenses calm and gain as much territory as possible ahead of a renewed push planned for the summer.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose maps show the current state of affairs along the front line, suggests that Russian troops are trying to maintain the pace of operations in eastern Ukraine.
Russia's offensive in the Ukraine war: Putin's troops do not want the defense line to be stabilized
This is intended to prevent Kiev's armed forces from stabilizing their defense lines, which analysts believe is not happening quickly enough.
A military expert told
Newsweek
that "Ukraine is not building long trenches like the Russians did last year, but is developing fortifications based on a system of well-positioned bases."
As they continue their offensives, Russian forces are preparing for a new push in the summer.
Putin's troops are currently focused on getting as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukraine establishes a harder-to-penetrate line in the area, the ISW further analyzes.
Putin's troops go on the offensive in the Ukraine war: Russia still has additional reserves
"It looks like Ukraine is digging long anti-tank trenches and setting up infantry positions in multiple directions," writes independent analyst Emil Kastehelmi at
Newsweek
.
“Ukraine has somewhat stabilized the Avdiivka front at the moment, but the Russians still have a lot of reserves they can send into battle.”
Nevertheless, Kastehelmi explained that the Russian advance could be stopped or at least slowed down.
Even “mediocre fortifications with mines” are capable of playing an important role in stopping Russia.
Putin's forces will most likely try to advance as far as possible by spring in order to take advantage of Ukraine's current shortage of ammunition and troops.