After the pause in February, inflation rises again in March. According to preliminary estimates from Istat, the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC), including tobacco, increases by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 1.3% on an annual basis (from +0.8% from the previous month). While "underlying inflation", net of energy and fresh food, accelerates from +2.3% to +2.4%, and that net of energy goods alone decelerates from +2.6% to +2 ,5%.
"The slight acceleration is affected by the easing of the year-on-year decline in the prices of energy goods", states Istat.
Based on preliminary estimates from Istat, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HIPC) increases by 1.2% on a monthly basis, due to the end of seasonal sales which the Nic does not take into account, and by 1.3 % on an annual basis (from +0.8% in February). The acceleration of the inflation rate measured by the Nic is mainly due to the attenuation on a trend basis of the decline in the prices of unregulated energy goods (from -17.2% to -10.3%) and regulated ones (from -18% to 4% to -13.8%) and, to a lesser extent, to the growth of those of transport-related services (from +3.8% to +4.4%); on the other hand, the prices of unprocessed food goods (from +4.4% to +2.6%) and tobacco (from +2.6% to +1.9%) recorded a slowdown. The trend trend in the prices of goods records a less marked decline (from -0.9% to -0.1%) and that of services is slightly accelerating (from +2.9% to +3.0%), determining a decrease in the inflationary differential between the services and goods sectors (+3.1 percentage points, from +3.8 in February). The cyclical increase in the general index mostly reflects the growth in prices of transport-related services also due to seasonal factors (+1.4%), processed food goods and regulated energy goods (+0.7 % both) and non-durable goods (+0.4%). The effects of these increases were only partially offset by the decrease in the prices of unregulated energy goods (-1.9%) and unprocessed food goods (-0.7%).
In March, the annual price dynamics of the so-called "shopping cart" slowed down (+3.0% from 3.7% in February). The prices of food, household and personal care goods are slowing down on a trend basis (from +3.4% to +3.0%), as are those of high-frequency purchasing products (from +2.8 February % at +2.7%). The prices of unprocessed food products also showed a slowdown in March (+2.6% from +4.4%). the same goes for tobacco (from +2.6% to +1.9%).
The acquired inflation for 2024 (i.e. the inflation that would occur if the index remained at the same level as the last monthly data available in the remaining part of the year) is equal to +0.6% for the general index and at +1.3% for the underlying component.
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