The global economy is in danger of shrinking by around a fifth by the middle of the century as a result of global warming. Much greater economic damage than $38 trillion per year can be expected, as researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) calculated in a study published in the journal Nature.
The poorest countries and those least responsible for climate change will be hit hardest, the study says. For Germany - as for the USA - the researchers predict that the economy will shrink by 11 percent by the mid-century, compared to a scenario without climate impacts. The authors write that this damage would be six times higher than the estimated costs for climate protection measures to limit global warming to a maximum of two degrees. According to the United Nations, the current climate protection plans are not yet sufficient. The researchers evaluated data from the past 40 years from more than 1,600 regions on how weather extremes have influenced economic growth. Based on climate models, they calculated how these are likely to have an economic impact over the next 26 years.