Restoring deterrence and preventing war escalation at the same time is like huffing and sipping. The greatest Israeli fear – also Saudi and the Sunni Arab countries – is that Iran will come to possess nuclear weapons.

The Iranian nuclear program will likely provide the perfect target at the right time to cut things short before the bomb is ready for use. It is enough for Israel to announce its ineluctability, as in reality it has already done. One way or another, it will arrive, and it will be forceful. That news is not good for Gazans, because Rafah offers an easy deterrent response without escalation abroad. The most extreme Israeli ministers, who do not conceive of deterrence without punishment or revenge, do not want to give up anything for an immediate and forceful response to Iran, but neither do they enter Rafah nor continue the siege on the Palestinians of the West Bank. Keeping the war mobilization alive becomes fundamental for the political survival of Netanyahu and his Government.