Israel intercepted 99 percent of Iran's missiles. War with Israel could have fatal consequences for the Islamic Republic.
Religious leader Khamenei probably wants to avoid war because it could endanger the regime. Khamenei risks the destruction of his life's work. Most Iranians can no longer identify with the authoritarian state leadership and its moral police. Tens of thousands of people have been imprisoned, and human rights organizations speak of more than 700 executions in 2023 alone. The regime is experiencing a "deep crisis of legitimacy," the Berlin think tank Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) says in a report. The hostility between Iran and Israel, which has been waged primarily verbally or through proxies for decades, is threatening to escalate at a time when the mullahs' regime appears to have lost support among the population. The majority of Iranians are against the repressive regime, its Islamic system of rule, and, above all, against the oppression of women in Iran. There is no clear successor, the religious leader is in weakened health, and in the event of his death, there is a risk of an open succession dispute or a dangerous power vacuum. The protests in themselves could not shake the regime, but they could pose a threat to it. "The Iranian leadership actually has no interest in being drawn into a larger regional conflict," confirmed Middle East expert Andreas Böhm from the University of St. Gallen. There is speculation that Israel could strike back in the high-tech sector with cyber attacks on infrastructure such as nuclear facilities. The Israelis sent computer viruses into secret Iranian networks and deliberately killed Iranian media: "Iran TOOK A HIGHER RISK THAN USUAL BY ATTACKING ISRAEL" The projectiles on the night from Saturday to Sunday were largely symbolic in nature. It is unclear what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's response will be. While the USA and European leaders are asking Israel to show restraint.