Unlike 2018, when Mauricio Macri faced a crisis that found him with an appreciated peso, today the Argentine economy is “on a different trajectory,” they explain. In December the official dollar went from $380 to $851.
This week will be crucial to find out more about the latter when the IMF Spring Assembly begins in Washington. The IMF prefers more flexibility in exchange rates to face macroeconomic swings. The dollar globally could appreciate more in the coming months. A peso aligned with a stronger dollar will increase the cost of inputs used by local industry. An estimate from the consulting firm Equilibra says that if the current dynamics are maintained for the rest of the semester (the prices of regulated services continue to rise, the dollar increases at 2% monthly, there is a salary cap and inflation remains at 8% average per month ), “the real exchange rate would close the first semester almost 15% behind its historical average”. The Government is betting on reaching single-digit inflation this month.