The Market Expectations Survey (REM) released today by the
Central Bank
shows a
strong reduction in inflation expectations for the entire year.
In the third survey of the year, those who participated in the REM estimated
a monthly inflation of 12.5% for March
, a drop of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous report. Minister Luis Caputo anticipated days ago that last month's figure would be around 10%.
For April they projected inflation of 10.8%, a decline of 1.3 points compared to the previous REM, and for May they estimate 9%. Thus, they anticipate one month the single-digit inflation that in the February measurement was only estimated for June.
For all of 2024, the forecast is now 189.4%, a drop of 20.8 points in relation to the previous survey.
If these projections are met, the year would close with lower inflation than in 2023, which had reached 211%.
The survey was carried out
between March 25 and 27 and includes the forecasts of 37 participants
, including 24 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 13 financial entities in Argentina.
Fall in activity
The group of REM analysts projected for 2024 a level of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
3.5%
lower than the average for 2023,
without changes compared to the previous month's survey.
Meanwhile, those who make up the Top-10 pollsters with the best results projected, on average,
a 4.1% reduction in activity for the year.
The fall would have been concentrated in the first quarter, a period for which those responding to the REM
estimated a contraction of 3.8% without seasonality in GDP
. According to their forecasts,
the level of activity would begin to recover in the third quarter of the year, with an increase of 0.6%.
In turn,
the forecasts implicitly show a strong projected increase for the fourth quarter of the year of approximately 4.1%.
By 2025, the group of REM participants estimated an average annual growth of 3.0%.
The open unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was projected at 7.1%
of the Economically Active Population (EAP), a significant jump compared to the 5.7% unemployment rate with which 2023 closed.
Those participating in the REM predicted a BADLAR rate for private banks, for April, of
71.9%
TNA (equivalent to a monthly effective rate of 5.9%) and a decrease to 60.0% in December.
In tune with what has been happening in the financial sector, with marked declines in alternative dollars, REM analysts are cooling their devaluation forecasts. They now project the nominal exchange rate at
$876.3 per dollar for the April 2024 average.
This implies a drop of
$51.5 per dollar
compared to the previous REM.
For the Top-10, the expected average nominal exchange rate for April is
$885.3 per dollar.
The interannual variation as of December 24 implicit in the forecasts was
124.0%,
26.8 points lower than the previous REM.
Regarding foreign trade in goods, the consultants estimated by 2024 that exports will total
US$ 80,842 million
and imports
US$ 65,162 million
, correcting both downwards compared to the previous survey (-US$ 771 million and -US$ 1,660 million, respectively).
Finally, the projection of the primary fiscal surplus of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) made by those participating in the REM was located at
$4,924 billion for 2024
($4,138 billion higher than the previous REM). The Top-10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $4.152 billion by 2024.