For more than a decade,
economists Diego Giacomini and Javier Milei were inseparable partners
.
When the current president decided to enter politics,
his paths diverged,
but the current director of the consulting firm Economía y Regiones may be one of the people who best knows the President's economic reasoning.
Giacomini was very harsh this morning when evaluating the first months of economic management carried out by Luis Caputo and the objectives of Javier Milei's economic plan.
In a radio interview on UrbanaPlay, the economist said: "I told the President
'you are not telling the truth to the people.'
And the most serious thing about not telling the truth is that it is a lie."
"The biggest part of the lie is that
you don't say what you are going to do
. And this also includes what you are doing monetarily with the monetary aggregates, with the quantity of money, reducing it enormously in real terms to plummet the level of activity, something that is done on purpose," said Giacomini and attacked: "Or did he say during the campaign:
'I am going to collapse the level of activity;
Your turnover is going to fall in real terms;
"Your sales are going to collapse in real terms
"? He didn't say it. Nor did he say "I'm going to lead you to dissave in dollars and you're going to have to sell dollars to pay current expenses."
In that sense, Giacomini assured that "
The nerve center of the economic plan was to make the private sector dissave.
SMEs on the one hand, family individuals on the other."
Diego Giacomini and Javier Milei on the cover of the book "Freedom, freedom, freedom."
At the same time, Giacomini questioned one of the flags of victory that Milei's economic team is raising these days: the fact of having achieved a financial surplus.
"In the last 10 Januarys, in the last 10 years, in six there was a balance or primary surplus, that is, before interest. He achieved financial balance and continued to remain, that is, he did not pay anything, he paid interest and he continued leaving some sleeves left. This put into dynamics in the entire year's film is unsustainable," he said.
Although the President assures that the decline in the dollar means that, measured in that currency, salaries and pensions show a recovery, Giacomini was critical.
"Imagine that you are a retiree who has no savings. Okay? So, what happens? Since you don't have savings, you live off your retirement. And, I don't know, a child who burdens you to pay. Well, here, in "In the first three months of government, December, February, prices increased by 72%, the general price level according to Indec's inflation estimate. In other words, that retiree is screwed."
"Now, let's imagine a retiree who has rest and has savings because he worked for 50 years and saved up savings. Argentines save in dollars. This retiree is also screwed, forgive me for the expression. Why? Because he sells dollars every month, to live probably. Now, inflation in dollars is much higher than that in pesos, so it has to sell more dollars. So, it is hitting both hard," the economist explained.
Regarding the inflationary slowdown, Giacomini said: "Milei boasts that February's inflation of
13.2% is a great number
. But here he is being short-sighted. Why? Because he is leaving it aside, and it cannot be left aside On the other hand,
inflation in dollars.
If you look at inflation in dollars since February, it is a little above 30%," said the president's former best friend.
"The Milei government is artificially lowering the dollar, so that it helps as an anchor for prices to rise more and more slowly. There are many SMEs whose turnover and sales and real terms are not enough to pay current expenses. If the dollar falls, these private economic agents have to spit out an increasing amount in dollars," he warned, adding: "It is very harmful for the private sector to dissave in dollars. When a company dissaves today, it will invest less in the future and will to produce less in the future.
"So,
this economic plan that involves a lack of savings,
that involves a strong inflation in dollars, in reality what it does is, in the long-term film, penalize future consumption. If nothing changes, it is a plan that in the long-term film, it impoverishes," he defined.
S.N.