The USA does not want to lose its role as a mediator in the Middle East to China: it is establishing an Israel-Saudi Arabia agreement. But does Netanyahu agree?
Riyadh - The United States is bilaterally promising Saudi Arabia much of what the Gulf state has long wanted: an official defense partnership with the United States, support for its civilian nuclear power program and renewed efforts for a Palestinian state. In return, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should officially recognize Israel as a state. He seems willing to do so - the negotiations are said to be in their final stages, reports the
Wall Street Journal
- but whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also agrees is questionable.
The greatest potential for conflict is likely to lie in the commitment to a Palestinian state, because Israel does not currently know exactly what it should do with the largely destroyed Gaza Strip. The status of the West Bank is almost as problematic: After the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the subsequent military retaliation, the situation there also escalated between radical Israeli settlers and the Arab-Palestinian population.
Diplomatic recognition: USA wants to broker an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia
A Palestinian state would mean combining these two territories under a government independent of Israel. The problem is that currently no one trusts the Palestinian Authority under 88-year-old Mahmoud Abbas to be able to handle this task. Netanyahu in particular rejects such a solution because it endangers Israel's security and the religious-conservative coalition partners are breathing down his neck. They always presented themselves as advocates for the Jewish settlers, some of whom settled illegally in the West Bank because they insisted that God gave them this land.
Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet and Netanyahu's main political rival, only spoke out in favor of a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia at the beginning of April. He is also in favor of including the Gulf monarchy and other moderate Arab states in a future security order for Gaza. Saudi representatives are now said to have declared their fundamental willingness to do so. According to
the Wall Street Journal,
they also announced that they would initially accept purely verbal assurances from Israel with regard to a Palestinian state in order not to jeopardize the other concessions made by the USA.
Striving for regional power status: Saudi Arabia between the USA, Iran, Türkiye and China
But why is Saudi Arabia even interested in the fate of the Palestinians? Not least because it is the guardian of Islam's holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia sees itself as a kind of protective power for at least all Sunni Muslims. For the Shiites, Iran claims this role. Saudi Arabia therefore also feels responsible for the Muslims in Palestine on a moral level. Added to this is the desire to become the dominant regional power and, as such, to settle regional conflicts.
Turkey has recently become increasingly competitive with Saudi Arabia, both on the moral level and with regard to its ambitions to become a regional power. For this reason, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also became involved as a mediator in the Gaza war. But the U.S.'s current efforts are aimed at keeping another potential mediator out of the matter, as U.S. officials told the
Wall Street Journal
: China's influence in the region should be limited. It is equally important to further isolate Iran by tying Saudi Arabia more closely to Israel, the most important US ally in the region.
In general, the impending conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to be a decisive factor in accelerating negotiations with Saudi Arabia, which the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023 initially put on hold. On the night of Iran's major attack on Israel, the Gulf state, like the Arab-Muslim Kingdom of Jordan, took part in defending against Iranian drones and missiles.
Trump has prepared the way: A foreign policy success could help Biden get re-elected
Unlike Saudi Arabia, Jordan was the second Arab state after Egypt to recognize Israel in 1994. In 2020, former US President Donald Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, in which Israel agreed to normalize bilateral relations with a number of other Arab states. Since then, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have recognized the Jewish state in this context.
With the current US efforts, Joe Biden is building on a foundation laid by his Republican predecessor. However, he will claim a possible success for himself, because the presidential elections are imminent in the United States. While domestic issues are said to be more important to American voters, a foreign policy success that an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal would represent could boost Biden's popularity.