The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Syrsky, recognized just a few days ago that the situation on the front had
“considerably deteriorated”
in the east of the country, citing
“tactical successes”
of the Russians who would seek to
“create the conditions for a deeper advance”
. The map of the conflict shows in recent hours a push by the occupier, particularly to the west of Avdiivka, this fortified town conquered on February 17. In a few days, the Russians managed to advance about 5 kilometers, approaching the town of Ocheretyne. Further north, same scenario to the west of the town of Bakhmout where the Russians entered the first dwellings of Chasiv Yar, one of the Ukrainian fortresses which protect the large cities of Donbass still controlled by kyiv. Same scenario again, this time further south, where the Russians have penetrated another Ukrainian fortress, Krasnohorivka.
“At this stage, we cannot speak of a breakthrough, but the Russians are reaping the fruits of their victories at Bakhmout and Avdiivka by pushing locally,”
comments a French military source
to Le
Figaro
. Since the start of the year, Russian gains have not exceeded a few dozen square kilometers each week, with no major break in the front at this stage. But the Russian strategy consists of carrying out a
“modelling”
of the Ukrainian system – a translation of the term
“shapping”
commonly used by the Anglo-Saxon military – by gradually destroying the opposing fortifications before launching limited attacks.
“Avdiivka created a 'hole' in the Ukrainian system. They launched reserves to fill it, but they don't have much left
,” observes our source, who fears that
“the Russians are thus preparing the ground for a larger offensive in the spring or summer
. ”
The Battle of Orechetyne
Thus, Orechetyne, 15 km west of Avdiivka, is not a simple locality like the different villages that the Russians have conquered in the same area in recent weeks: for the Ukrainians, it is an important logistics center , crossed by a railway line which leads directly to Pokrovsk, one of the main Ukrainian locks in the Donbass region. According to the latest open source information, notably the pro-Ukrainian DeepState map, Orechetyne is still in the hands of the Ukrainians, but the Russians are at the height of the first homes in the town after having broken through the opposing defense line.
But the most worrying thing for Kiev is above all the
“tempo”
of the Russian push which is accelerating slightly.
“The Russians are emerging from positional warfare and are beginning to reestablish maneuver on the battlefield
,” observed this Tuesday the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank based in Washington.
The Battle of Chasiv Yar
Near Bakhmout, the Russians also press the Ukrainian defenses. After seizing the village of Ivanivske and the surrounding heights in March, they reached the part of the town of Chasiv Yar located east of the eponymous canal. This wet cut, from which the Russians are only a few hundred meters away, protects the Ukrainians, but not at the level of the city where it becomes underground. It would still be much more difficult for the Russians to take the west of Chasiv Yar, protected by hills still in the hands of the Ukrainians, but the Russians are further weakening a defensive system weakened by a lack of men and ammunition every day.
In terms of artillery, the fire ratio is in favor of the Russians in a ratio of at least 1 to 5, even up to 1 to 10. Above all, the Russian aviation changes the situation on the ground: at a good distance from the front, the Sukhoi Su-34 bombers drop their FAB-500 and FAB-1500 glide bombs on the fortifications, without the Ukrainians being able to find a solution for the moment, due to a lack of surface-to-air munitions. The shortages in this area are such that, near Chasiv Yar, the Russians can even once again engage their Su-25, ground attack aircraft whose presence directly at the front line reveals that Moscow, at least locally, has mastery of the sky.
Why is Chasiv Yar a prime target for the Russians? Beyond this fortified city located on a height, the Russians could reach from the south the last two major cities of Donbass still in the hands of the Ukrainians, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The Battle of Krasnohorivka
“In the short term, I am especially worried about another Ukrainian fortress, Krasnohorivka
,” underlines our military source. Much like Avdiivka was, Krasnohorivka is one of the last Ukrainian locks protecting the south of Donetsk Oblast. Here again, the Russians
are "shaping"
the terrain to prepare the
"conditions for a deeper advance"
, to use General Oleksandr Syrsky's formula. In the meantime, they would have reached the suburban suburbs of the city.
This battle is an opportunity to see a new Russian discovery on the ground. Tanks have been adapted to accommodate a large sheet metal structure which covers them entirely. Topped with an electronic jamming device against drones, this type of homemade cage nicknamed
"turtle"
- in reference to the Roman legions - is quite unsightly, but allows infantry units to slip into it in order to be protected Ukrainian fire.
“In Krasnohorivka, we can see such a system traveling 2000 meters into the opposing system then returning to its position, without being destroyed. Even in the event of an FPV drone attack, the detonation takes place too early and is not able to pierce the tank's armor. We can be mocking because it's ugly, but this homemade adaptation could prove useful
,” observes our military source. At this stage, it appears to be a still very localized innovation, used in this city by the 5th motorized rifle brigade of the 1st army corps. It remains to be seen, in the future, whether the Russian army will generalize it elsewhere on the front.
Create the conditions for a future offensive?
Beyond these astonishing turtle tanks, which we could already observe during the two world conflicts, the essential thing is elsewhere: the Russian push is accelerating in eastern Ukraine because the balance of power between the two belligerents tilt more and more in favor of the Russians. The latter are driven by Russia's war economy, whose industry is running at full capacity, and recruitment of contract workers which is continuing (around 30,000 “contracts” signed per month). Opposite, the Ukrainians are struggling to mobilize, despite a new law that came into force this week, and many soldiers have been fighting the occupier for two years continuously. The brigades, often incomplete, are not sufficiently replenished to allow a rotation of troops whose average age exceeds 40 years. Above all, Western aid is becoming dangerously rare, against a backdrop of tensions over stocks throughout the West and especially political blockage in the United States.
Russia's attrition strategy is working in Moscow's favor today. It remains to be seen whether the Russians, after having worn down the Ukrainians, will wish to relaunch a major offensive and attempt a real breakthrough. Already, they are accelerating the pace of their deep strikes. Due to a lack of sufficient anti-aircraft defense, kyiv is no longer able to maintain an effective shield against enemy missiles and drones. In recent weeks, Moscow has managed to target and seriously damage several electricity production plants, which risks paralyzing the country.
To counter the possibility of a large-scale Russian offensive, the Ukrainians hastily built new fortifications behind the front. In mirror image, the “Sourovikin” line of the Russians, built after their defeats suffered in the fall and winter of 2022, had allowed them this summer to resist the shock of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which had turned into a fiasco . But will this Ukrainian Maginot line be enough?
“The assumption that the war will remain stalemate regardless of U.S. actions is false. “Russian advances will accelerate without urgent American action
,” the Institute for the Study of War warned on Wednesday.