A populist critical of aid to Ukraine disputes the prime minister's position in the Croatian elections

Brussels is closely following Croatia's legislative elections this Wednesday, which are being held early and in which there are many atypical elements. But perhaps most worrying for the European authorities is the fact that a leader critical of Croatia's policy regarding aid to Ukraine, the country's president, Zoran Milanovic, has emerged as the main opponent of the favorite party in the elections. polls, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), headed by Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. Formally, Milanovic cannot head the electoral list because he holds the presidency, but he has made it clear that he will take the reins of the Government if he wins his party.

The confrontation between Plenkovic (54 years old) and Milanovic (57 years old and member of the Social Democratic Party) goes back a long way, but has intensified since the invasion of Russia in February 2022. Although Milanovic declared the violation of sovereignty “unacceptable” at the time, Ukraine on the part of Moscow, was also critical of the policy of aid to Ukraine. The Croatian president maintains that that country is not part of NATO and, therefore, Croatia has no obligations towards it. Meanwhile, the prime minister accuses him of “Russianism” and acting like “a Kremlin official.”

Dusan Dinic, a fellow at the German think tank Friedrich Naumann Foundation, explains in an email that Milanovic last year rejected an offer from Prime Minister Plenkovic to train a limited number of Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia. “Milanovic uses opinion polls that suggest that around 70% of Croatians do not support Croatia's participation in the war. His conclusion is that the United States fights Russia through Ukraine,” indicates the analyst.

Dinic also maintains that if Milanovic wins in the legislative elections, he will be much less open than the current Government to any Croatian participation in the war. “And he will also be in favor of the 'Croatia first' policy towards the EU. He is ready to veto EU decisions if they do not satisfy the interests of Croats living in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he reflects.

One of the atypical elements of these elections, in which 3.7 million citizens are called to vote to elect 151 deputies, is that they are held on a Wednesday. President Milanovic surprised everyone by setting the date on a weekday and declaring it a holiday.

Even more unusual is that President Milanovic himself has run as a candidate for prime minister, a position he already held between 2011 and 2016. The Croatian Constitutional Court reminded him on March 18 that he would have to resign from the presidency if he ran in the elections. Milanovic did not resign and has assured that he will only do so if he wins at the polls.

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The trick that would allow Milanovic to become prime minister is that his political party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has run in the elections heading the Rivers of Justice (Rijeka Pravde) list. This has presented Peda Grbin as the official candidate, since Milanovic cannot be because he has not resigned, but the parties on this list have committed to naming him prime minister if they win the elections. In this case, Milanovic would resign as president.

Without absolute majority

The latest polls predicted that Plenkovic's conservative HDZ could obtain around 60 of the 151 seats (compared to 66 in the last elections), while the coalition led by the social democrat SDP would obtain between 44 and 45 seats, at least three more than in 2020. Third place would be occupied by the right-wing Homeland Movement, opposed to immigration (14 seats) and the environmentalists of Mozemo would come later with nine deputies. All polls rule out an absolute majority and anticipate the need to form a coalition government.

During the election campaign, Milanovic's diatribes focused on corruption, personalized in the figure of Plenkovic. Dusan Dinic explains that the main instrument of the fight against corruption in the Social Democrats' program is the strengthening of the independence of the judiciary. “But this was not discussed in detail during the campaign. The issue of corruption is mainly limited to ranting against Plenkovic and claiming that he, Milanovic, is less corrupt than the HDZ, which is actually not particularly difficult,” he believes.

The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has governed the country for 26 of the last 33 years since the fall of Yugoslavia, between 1991 and 1992.

One of its main achievements has been the incorporation, last year, of the euro and the Schengen zone.

Despite the fact that the economy grew by 2.8% in 2023, more than double the average of the 27 EU countries (1.2%), many citizens complain about the cost of living. While in the euro zone average inflation was 2.9%, in Croatia it reached 5.4%, only surpassed by the Czech Republic (7.6%), according to Eurostat.

Dinic recalls that around thirty ministers have resigned since Plenkovic served as head of the Government, "often because of corruption." The analyst adds that one of the most controversial cases, which caused protests in the streets last February, was the publication of correspondence between the attorney general, Ivan Turudic, appointed by the HDZ, and a former government official investigated by the Office of Repression of Corruption and Organized Crime of Croatia.

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