Hosting the United Nations climate negotiations is a huge responsibility and opportunity for a country, and Azerbaijan is set to take over the presidency of the next COP at a crucial time. At COP29 in November 2024, countries will negotiate the future of climate finance, one of the most contentious but essential aspects of global climate diplomacy. For years, developed countries have not provided the necessary and promised financing. For Azerbaijan's leadership in November to be successful, it will be important to restore trust and achieve an ambitious outcome on climate finance.
Three months after COP28 in Dubai, we are beginning to get an idea of the priorities of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Speaking at a recent climate summit in Copenhagen a few days ago, incoming COP President Mukhatar Babayev stated that “finance will be at the core of climate diplomacy” and that empowering countries to present climate plans more ambitious will be key at the November conference. These good signs must be accompanied by the ambitious leadership necessary to ensure Baku's success. Above all, your approach must be guided by the imperative of limiting global warming to 1.50 degrees.
The need for climate action could not be clearer. The year 2023 has been the hottest in history by a wide margin. The last nine months have broken all previous temperature records for their respective months, with February being 1.77°C warmer than the pre-industrial average for this time of year. These effects are already evident in Spain, where drought conditions caused by high temperatures and lack of rain are affecting large areas of the country, a situation that we know will only worsen with warming. The catastrophic effects of the climate crisis are already being felt around the world. From South America to Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and Oceania, the consequences of rising temperatures are threatening people's lives, destroying ecosystems and causing economic carnage.
At COP28, the world finally agreed to abandon fossil fuels. This agreement was necessary and commendable, but it is not enough: countries must demonstrate how they are going to achieve it and there must be immediate action if we are to limit the worsening impacts of the climate crisis.
When the world gathers for COP29, it will do so against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and with a series of leaders newly elected following votes in more than 60 countries and regions. This will increase the burden on the Azerbaijani presidency in building consensus among the parties around our shared global objectives. The presidency must ensure that it fosters inclusion by bringing together civil society, business and policymakers, opening up debate and giving greater prominence to developing nations most affected by the crisis and which often feel marginalized.
Concretely, the Baku-led negotiations must build on the results of COP28 and continue to work together with the subsequent Brazilian presidency of COP30 and the outgoing UAE presidency of COP28 as a troika to stop the growing divide between the global north and the global south. Unless we set the right political expectations about how to rebuild trust and boost multilateralism, our international credibility as climate champions could be lost.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is clear that we must reduce emissions by 45% between now and 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 C. To achieve this, $35 trillion will have to be invested in the transition energy and do more on the climate adaptation front. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), adaptation finance flows fell by $4 billion in 2021, representing just 27% of total climate finance.
The COP29 presidency can play a key role in closing the financial gaps faced by developing countries. Baku must act as a global facilitator, working closely with international and regional financial institutions, along with G7 and G20 countries, to align financial flows with development needs.
For this to be the “COP of finance” as expected, Azerbaijan cannot miss the opportunity to advocate for a strong new global climate finance target, known as the New Collective Quantified Climate Finance Goal (NCQG). in English). This goal must pragmatically meet the needs of low- and middle-income countries, and establish clearer pathways on how to balance the need for adaptation finance.
Beyond the COP summit, global financial reforms are needed more than ever. The current financial system is not delivering for developing countries, and many of them remain trapped in debt problems and unable to attract the necessary investment.
Strong signals and guidance are also needed from this COP to pave the way for countries to develop and submit enhanced national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2025. These plans must be submitted before COP30 in Belém, Brazil, and will include emissions reduction targets for 2035. Countries should also take this opportunity to improve their 2030 targets.
Recent climate summits have increasingly recognized the role of nature and nature-based solutions in climate action. The COP28 Global Assessment made clear that protecting and restoring nature, land and oceans is a crucial part of a larger effort to reduce emissions and increase resilience. This COP should consolidate this progress by establishing a dedicated climate and nature workstream that can work to improve synergies between national climate and biodiversity action plans.
When countries hosting climate negotiations aim high and pursue an ambitious outcome, they are recognized for their leadership. Azerbaijan now has the opportunity to step forward on the world stage by bringing together nations, people and businesses around our common priorities. A breakthrough on the particularly sensitive issue of climate change financing would be a significant achievement and could make a big difference to the pace of action to address the climate crisis.
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
is WWF's global director of Climate and Energy and was president of COP20 in Lima in 2014.
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