More than two years after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Moscow maintains complicated relations with Warsaw. But since last weekend, tensions between the two countries have increased in intensity.
The reason is the hostile policy of the Kremlin. “
The main source of tension is Russia. Russia is solely responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. Poland is witnessing this war as a neighboring country,” underlines Dorota Dakowska, professor at Sciences-po Aix.
A violation of Polish territory
Last Sunday, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz denounced a new violation of his territory after a Russian missile flew over the town of Oserdow for 39 seconds.
A provocation to which Warsaw responded by summoning the Russian ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreev. The latter did not clarify the situation, arguing that Poland had no proof of the origin of the missile.
❗️24 hours at the start 08:30 at the site Dowództwa Operacyjnego RSZ ul. Radiowa 2 w Warszawie, odbędzie się briefing prasowy z rzecznikiem prasowym DO RSZ ppłk. Jackiem Goryszewskim, dotyczący incydentu naruszenia polskiej przestrzeni powietrznej przez jedną z rakiet… pic.twitter.com/xkxdMEB5fz
— Dowództwo Operacyjne (@DowOperSZ) March 24, 2024
Faced with this inflexibility, some Polish politicians rebelled. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called the diplomat's position "absolutely unacceptable." Left-wing MP Anna Maria Zukowska went even further, advocating his expulsion.
At the same time, Poland has decided to put its anti-aircraft defense on alert. “Warsaw has the means to defend itself, it has invested a lot in its defense budget. When Russian missiles violate Polish airspace, Polish combat planes take off to secure the country's territory,” explains Dorota Dakowska.
Tensions rose on Tuesday after Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said NATO could shoot down Russian missiles that approach member countries' borders.
Suspicions of interference and espionage
Relations which crystallized further after the discovery, by the counter-espionage services, of a Russian network on Polish soil. On Thursday, the ABW announced that it had carried out searches in Warsaw and Tychy and
“
interrogated people”. They are suspected of “achieving the Kremlin’s foreign policy objectives, in particular weakening Poland’s position on the international scene, discrediting Ukraine and the image of the institutions of the European Union”.
“It’s a structural problem. Western countries, including Poland, are gradually taking stock of Russian networks of influence. Polish and Czech intelligence services have exposed a Russian-funded site that was trying to influence the European elections. », adds Dorota Dakowska.
These tensions could further increase in intensity. Everything depends on the behavior adopted by the master of the Kremlin, according to Dorota Dakowska: “Putin is unpredictable, capable of many violations of international law. He should not be expected to act as a rational actor. »